Mayor of Grand Rapids:
A poll published in the Grand Rapids Press had Heartwell at 44%, Tormala at 25%, GRPS Board Member/2006 Congressional nominee Jim Rinck at 8%, and Jackie Miller at 2%, with 20% undecided and 1% refusing to answer. If we are to believe this poll, Heartwell has less than half the vote, which would force a runoff with Tormala. However, Heartwell has more than half of the vote (about 55% or so) amongst people who have settled on a candidate.
Two common rules of thumb are that (a) the incumbent usually has an advantage and (b) undecideds often end up breaking 2-1 for the challenger(s). In that case, if Heartwell attracts 1/3 of the undecided vote, that would give him roughly 51% - just barely enough to win outright. But again, this was just one poll; had other polls been taken, perhaps this would be seen as an outlier.
Grand Rapids City Commission:
On the GR City Commission, three candidates are vying for the right to replace likely 2008 State House candidate Roy Schmidt in the First Ward. They are businessmen Walt Gutowski and Ed Kettle, and former County Commissioner and 2006 Drain Commissioner candidate Tom Postmus (R). Meanwhile, four candidates are seeking to succeed Tormala in Ward 2: Michael Booker, community activist Ruth Kelly, former County Commissioner Dan Koorndyk (R), and businessman/2006 State Senate candidate David LaGrand (for whom I did a literature drop over the weekend).
Grand Rapids Community College:
The Grand Rapids Community College millage is the only thing on the ballot in Kentwood this election. It failed by just a few hundred votes in May. This time it has a couple more things going for it, among them a lower request - .49 mills vs. .56 mills requested in May - just might catch a few more voters who were a bit squeamish about supporting the first millage but would support a slightly smaller increase.
Moreover, expect higher turnout in Grand Rapids and lower turnout elsewhere in the county. Unlike most of the rest of Kent County, Grand Rapids voters did not have a school board election to in May; this likely contributed to lower turnout in GR, a city where a majority of voters supported the GRCC millage. This time around, however, turnout will likely be higher in GR, with multiple races on the ballot, while few communities outside GR will have primaries for offices this Tuesday. That said, I’m going to hedge my bets and say that it will only pass by a narrow margin.
Letters to the Editor
I did an informal survey of Letters to the Editor over the past couple of weeks tallying how many such letters supported each candidate. The unofficial results:
Mayor:
Tormala: 17
Heartwell: 5
Ward 1:
Gutowski: 7
Kettle: 6
Postmus: 3
Ward 2:
LaGrand: 14
Kelly: 9
Koorndyk: 4
Booker: 1
GRCC Millage:
Yes: 15
No: 9
Predictions:
Heartwell 48%, Tormala 38%, Rinck 11%, Miller 3%.
Gutowski 38%, Kettle 34%, Postmus 28%.
Kelly 39%, LaGrand 37%, Koorndyk 19%, Booker 5%.
GRCC millage: 53% Yes.
Turnout: 20.4% in Grand Rapids, 7.6% in Kentwood, 13.4% through Kent County.
Happy voting!
PS: Warren has six candidates for Mayor, five for City Treasurer, four for City Clerk, and 42 individuals seeking nine City Council seats!
8/06/2007
Election Eve thoughts
8/04/2007
Saturday Coffee Talk/Open Thread for Michigan Liberal
Just three days from now, voters like me (and you?) will be partaking in primary elections. I, for one, will be doing a lit drop today.
Meanwhile:
Congress:
- AP: Senate passes Bush terorism spy bill. Sometimes in life, it is best for one to bite one's tongue. I will do so in this case, except to say that thankfully, Carl and Debbie voted no.
- Mr. Rogers' Neighborhood: Who does Mike Rogers Really Work For: Part XXVIII. How much does it cost to be a Congressman these days? Click to find out!
- Vote No on Joe: The New "Ask Joe" Feature. You folks in the Ninth can have fun with this - but you only have seventeen months to use it!!
- Monroe News: Senate moves to create efficiency panel. Let me do some of the panel’s work for them: State lawmakers ‘earn’ some $80,000 per year. It would've been considerably lower if not for Republican Dan DeGrow deciding not to let the Senate vote down a massive pay hike in 2001. How about slashing lawmaker pay?
- WKAR: House chair claims progress on cost-cutting. According to Rep. George Cushingberry (D), $300 million has been cut. "He says that is being ignored in the debate over tax increases."
- Detroit News: Ron Gettelfinger (UAW): Union auto plants beat competitors. Read this gem and arm yourself with talking points to use when you run into someone whoo isn't all that pro-union.
- Mount Pleasant Morning Sun: Great Lakes aren’t priority for Bush. Given the Administration's committment to the environment, aren't you just shocked? {/sarcasm}
- Blue Chips: Dodd-1, O'Reilly-0. Watch Billo get pwned.
- AP: Blogs make their political mark. Heck yeah we are!
So how's life in your corner of the state?
8/03/2007
The WeekEnder: August 3-5, 2007
We're just four days away from the primaries here in Michigan - and it's time for the sixth installment of The WeekEnder! The WeekEnder is a weekly series that will provide a hodgepodge of information to fill your soul, make you laugh, make you cry, and inspire you.
- Freshman senators seek to check use of private contractors in Iraq
- Senate leader supports censorship of opposition blog
- A different kind of communion
- Are the Tigers being cursed?
- The premier progressive blog
- I Scream for Howard Dean
- Can this kid play soccer!
- LuberalLucy's words of warning
- How would they respond?
- For Freedom?
Senate's Freshman Democrats seek to curb private contracting
Don't tell me that freshmen don't get it:
The Senate’s nine freshman Democrats announced a new effort Wednesday to rein in the use of private contractors to rebuild Iraq and to do an array of war-related jobs normally assigned to the military, The Virginian-Pilot reported Thursday.State Senate GOP leader blocks Blogging for Michigan
According to the report, the group will ask Congress to create a "Commission on Wartime Contracting" that would assign auditors already employed by the federal government to ferret out waste and mismanagement in the more than $300 billion Iraq reconstruction effort.
A special inspector general on Iraq reconstruction reported two years ago that $9 billion of $32 billion spent by the State Department on Iraq reconstruction “could not be accounted for,” Jim Webb, D-Va., is reported as saying. “I think we all deserve better than that.”
The panel also would explore legal questions surrounding the use of contractors to do such jobs as interrogate prisoners and provide security for top U.S. generals, Webb is reported as saying.
What is Mike Bishop afraid of?
Pastor serves marijuana as communionApparently bankrupting the state isn't all Michigan State Senate Republican Leader Mike Bishop wants to do. This time he's gone after one of Michigan's best lefty blogs, Blogging for Michigan.
After a post went up today on BFM about the wrong-doings one of Bishop's cronies, out-of-touch Senator Bruce Patterson (R-Canton), Mike Bishop's Chief of Staff Matt Miner, called Secretary of the Senate Carol Viventi and instructed her to block access to all blogs from the Senate offices.
Can we get the Pope to bring this to Catholicism?
Blog highlight of the week: The Decider Curse?The mail-order minister of a Hollywood church that burns marijuana during services and allegedly sells it to members says that’s protected under federal law because the drug is a religious sacrament.
But Judge Mary Strobel has ruled that the Reverend Craig X. Rubin can’t use federal law as a defense because he faces only state charges.
Rubin, who’s representing himself at his drug trial, says members of his Temple 420 believe that marijuana is the tree of life mentioned in the Bible.
Last year Michigan gubernatorail candidate Dick "Amway Guy" DeVos cursed the Detroit Tigers. Now is his pal Dubya Bush doing the same?
Link of the week: Daily KosThe Red Sox had the Curse of Bambino it took them 86 years to shake that. The Cubs still have the Curse of the Billy Goat that has been running since 1908. Now we have the curse of the "Decider." After the 2007 Allstar break President Bush once again proved he could F*ck a junkyard. He took one the hottest team's in baseball heading into the break and turned them into the Bad News Bears. The "Decider" must have realized he cannot do anything right and new picking our Tigers to win the World Series would of course send them into a spiraling trend crushing the hearts, of all those, Union loving, Clean air appreciating, Blue Staters in Michigan.
Lets just hope he manages this Curse like he manages the Department of Justice. If that is the case I think Jim Leyland can overcome this.
What can I say for Daily Kos? In five years the site has grown into being the premier blog for the Left. A community of over 100,000 persons, Daily Kos (AKA Kos or dKos) is one of my favorite blogs, if not my favorite, besides my own (of course). In addition to several stories and open threads, some of my favorite Kos features include (but are not limited to) Diary Rescue, Presidential Straw Polls, Cheers and Jeers, Teacher's Lounge, Forgotten Founding Fathers, and many, many more.
Many Kossacks are currently in Chicago as part of YearlyKos2007; Presidential candidates, Howard Dean, and many othes are speaking at YearkyKos.
Photo of the Week: Dean at YearlyKos
And speaking of which, this appeared on Kos's front page:
Video of the Week: Soccer Prodigy
Related story here.
Quote of the week: LiberalLucy (a.k.a. Julielyn Gibbons
"Hell hath no fury as a lefty blogger scorned."
Joke of the Week: How would Hillary and Barack react?
(Hat tip: JustWinBaby at Daily Kos)
Both Obama and Clinton were asked what they would do first if a major US highway bridge collapsed while they were President.
Obama said he would make sure first responders had everything they need.
Clinton said the first thing she would do is retaliate.
Final thought
The so-called "Young Americans for Freedom" may be young, and they may be Americans, but they're not for freedom... at least not freedom of religion.
Bridge collapse redux
What follows is a compilation of articles surrounding Wednesday's collaps of a highway bridge in Minnesota.
Officials were warned about the bridge's vulnerability:
Minnesota officials were warned as early as 1990 that the bridge that collapsed into the Mississippi River was "structurally deficient," yet they relied on a strategy of patchwork fixes and stepped-up inspections....and Nick Coleman of the Minnepolis Star-Tribune is not happy about how little was done to fix the problem:
"We thought we had done all we could," state bridge engineer Dan Dorgan told reporters not far from the mangled remains of the span. "Obviously something went terribly wrong."
Questions about the cause of the collapse and whether it could have been prevented arose Thursday as authorities shifted from rescue efforts to a grim recovery operation, searching for bodies that may be hidden beneath the river's swirling currents.
The death bridge was "structurally deficient," we now learn, and had a rating of just 50 percent, the threshold for replacement. But no one appears to have erred on the side of public safety. The errors were all the other way.One Daily Kos member suggests that Republicans move next year's Republican Convention out of St. Paul:
Would you drive your kids or let your spouse drive over a bridge that had a sign saying, "CAUTION: Fifty-Percent Bridge Ahead"?
No, you wouldn't. But there wasn't any warning on the Half Chance Bridge. There was nothing that told you that you might be sitting in your over-heated car, bumper to bumper, on a hot summer day, thinking of dinner with your wife or of going to see the Twins game or taking your kids for a walk to Dairy Queen later when, in a rumble and a roar, the world you knew would pancake into the river.
And we have a collapsed bridge in Minneapolis, symbolic of the years of neglect in infrastructure spending. What a horrific reminder on the necessity of government spending, awfully staring the party of small government in the face.The author then proceeds to suggest a few cities, starting with - you guessed it - New Orleans.
My suggestion to Republicans: find a new convention site. Now.
Because your only selling point is this:And if you thought that bridge in Minneapolis was the only deficient one:
We'll do for your town what we did for New Orleans.
More than 70,000 bridges across the country are rated structurally deficient like the span that collapsed in Minneapolis, and engineers estimate repairing them all would take at least a generation and cost more than $188 billion.People are sad about the loss of life, angry that more wasn't done, and fearful about where this could happen next. Whatever your thoughts on this tragedy, Let us keep the victims and their families in our thoughts and prayers - particularly those who are still missing.
That works out to at least $9.4 billion a year over 20 years, according to the American Society of Civil Engineers. The bridges carry an average of more than 300 million vehicles a day.
It is unclear how many of the spans pose actual safety risks. Federal officials alerted the states late Thursday to immediately inspect all bridges similar to the Mississippi River span that collapsed.
In a separate cost estimate, the Federal Highway Administration has said addressing the backlog of needed bridge repairs would take at least $55 billion. That was five years ago, with expectations of more deficiencies to come.
8/02/2007
You Are Cordially Invited
To help determine the future of your community
Who: The voters of Michigan who were registered to vote by July 9
What: Primary elections for Mayor and City Councils, as well as millage questions.
These primaries are non-partisan. In a partisan primary, voters narrow down the number of candidates to one candidate per party. Nonpartisan primaries only occur when three or more candidates are running for one seat. In a nonpartisan primary, if one candidate receives 50% of the vote, that candidate is declared the outright winner; otherwise, the top two candidates advance to the November election (which is called the general election or runoff).
When: Next Tuesday, August 7. Polls are open from 7AM to 8PM.
Where: Communities across Michigan. Click here to see if yours is among them.
Why: City officials make important decisions. Funding for police and fire departments, as well as parks, usually comes from city and township governments. Decisions made by local governments often have an even bigger impact on our day-to-day lives than those made by federal or state government.
What's more, your vote has a greater impact. Voter turnout in city elections is far lower than it is in, say, Presidential or gubernatorial elections.
Not convinced? Many future political leaders are running. Today's City Councilperson or Mayor is tomorrow's state lawmaker. My Republican State Senator, Bill Hardiman, was mayor of my hometown of Kentwood for many years. State Senate Democratic Leader Mark Schauer was a Battle Creek City Commissioner, while Senators Martha Scott, Liz Brater, Glenn Anderson, and many others have served on City Councils.
Please RSVP by August 7, 2007 at 8 O'Clock P.M.
Note: Some cities, such as Kentwood and Grand Rapids, call their city councils 'city commissions.' Though the names are different, they essentially serve the same purpose. For simplicity's sake, I have decided to use the term 'city council' throughout this post.
Michigan's Ninth Congressional District Race: An Outsider's Thoughts
The following is my reply to a post on Michigan Liberal about the 9th District Congressional race. In it I address a number of fallacies that I saw in the post, in replies thereto, and in campaigns and politics in general, so I decided to repost it here.
(I live in the Fighting Third - a district, which, if we win it next year, I'll eat my computer. But getting back to the point.)
There are positives and negatives with both Peters and Skinner - as there are with any candidate, politician, etc. It's called 'being human.'
Nazgul35 said that he doesn't buy the 'electability' argument anymore - and neither do I; I feel that often (not always!) that argument is used to scare people into not voting for a candidate. I'm not implying that it's being used as such here; but people do need to beware of how that argument is used.
I also disagree with the idea that we must not nominate Skinner just because ‘she’s had her chance.’ Richard Nixon ‘had his chance’ in 1960, he lost, but in 1968 he got another chance - and won. In 2002, Congressman John Thune (R-SD) lost a US Senate bid in a very red state in a Republican year. Two years later he got another chance - and defeated Tom Daschle.
Furthermore, I strongly disagree with the suggestion that Skinner shouldn’t run for Congress just because she underperformed the base. For one, it’s one thing to say she shouldn’t get the nomination for that reason; it’s another thing to say she shouldn’t run just because of that. People should have a choice.
What’s more, voters in 2002 were probably more familiar with Peters than Cox, and thus voted accordingly, in a year which saw no big-name Democrats run for any of the statewide board races. 2006 saw Debbie Dingell, wife of a Congressman (surely that name is familiar to many in the Detroit area, whether or not they live in his district), run for WSU Governor while Rochester Hills’s own Casandra Ulbrich kicked behind in the Board of Education race.
Moreover, was Skinner well-known in 2006? No. Peters in 2002? He was a State Senator. Skinner will surely be more well-known in 2008 (if she is the nominee) than she was in 2006. Why? For one, she has more name recognition. Two, the DCCC has already said that they will get involved with this race helping out our nominee, whether it be her or Peters.
Which brings me to my next point. Skinner did quite well despite having about as much support from the DNC and DCCC as Granholm has had from Nolan Finley. We will have support from them in 2008, so money will be less of a factor. In the past, I’m sure some Democrats and independents have voted for Knollenberg simply because they liked him - or they didn’t see the need to turn an incumbent out of office. (Ehlers and Camp benefit from that same "oh, but we like him, why get rid of him?’ attitude.) Yet people are learning the truth about Knollenberg - and will learn more as the campaign gets into gear.
In the strongest of terms, I urge those of you in the Ninth District to support the candidate whom you think would do the best job in Congress. To support someone based on any lesser reason rather than that would be cheating not only Oakland County, but America. (And yes, that does mean I think Americans are being cheated - a lot.) While I don’t know much about either Peters or Skinner, we surely all agree that either would make a fine Member of Congress - certainly better than Joe Knollenberg.
8/01/2007
Bits of Tid: August 1, 2007
Happy New Month - it is August 2007!!! "Should Al Gonzales be forgot..."
- Is impeachment in the near future for Gonzales?
- Oh, but don't feel lonely, Gonzo. Senator Ted "It's a Series of Tubes" Stevens is also in trouble.
- Bill Bradley:
"Racial profiling seeps so deeply in our society that a wallet in the hand of a white man looks like a wallet, and the wallet in the hand of a black man looks like a gun."
Hat tip: My Left Wing - First Dick DeVos cursed the Tigers - now is Dubya doing the same?
- A man in Wisconsin won an award for bad writing:
Gerald began — but was interrupted by a piercing whistle which cost him ten percent of his hearing permanently, as it did everyone else in a ten-mile radius of the eruption, not that it mattered much because for them 'permanently' meant the next ten minutes or so until buried by searing lava or suffocated by choking ash — to pee.
Of the contest, the article states thatEntrants are asked to submit bad opening sentences to imaginary novels.
- Speaking of which - my latest pick for banishment:
Having your work cut out for you - On the surface, it sounds like someone’s done something nice for you: "Hey, I cut out your work just for you." Uh, not exactly.
A mention of the LSSU list on Daily Kos provoked a lot of responses.
Heck, I think I just might submit something for that award. Or maybe I should just stick to Lake Superior State's Banished Words List.
7/31/2007
Cute pictures of adorable girls
I don't think I've posted about my dogs yet.
First, meet Swifty, our black lab/husky mix whom we met at the Humane Society in 2004. After Bonnie died earlier that year, Mom told me on Christmas Day 2003 that she wanted to get me a dog. We decided, however, that the time wasn't right; Bonnie's sister Cindy wasn't doing well either, and bringing in another dog would complicate things. But after Cindy died in June of 2004, we felt lonely. So just before Christmas that year, we met Swifty, who was named after Dr. Swift at the Humane Society.
A year later, Mom said it felt awkward only having one dog in the house. So we went to the Animal Shelter, where we met Lady, whom Mom renamed Lucy. The rambunctious border collie/German Shepherd mix is the star of her own YouTube video.
7/28/2007
Saturday Coffee Talk/Open Thread for Michigan Liberal
(I'm going to be doing this every Saturday from now on!)
We have a beautiful Saturday on tap - perfect for celebrating half a century of Michigan's best-known landmark:
- WKAR: Governor Celebrates Mackinac Bridge in Radio Address. "She says the bridge serves as an example of how government spending can help the state’s economy." Need I say more?
- Petoskey News-Review: Mackinac Bridge 50th has the goods on when the bridge will be closed for the parade and, later, the fireworks.
- Jack Lessenberry: The Mighty Mac. Jack toasts fifty years of the Bridge of Steel that unites the two most beautiful peninsulas in the world.
- Michigan Radio: Michigan May Benefit from Homeland Security Bill. Update: The House passed it overwhelmingly, Pete Hoekstra being the lone 'no' vote from Michigan.
- WKAR: US House Passes Farm Bill. One provision of the bill would help Michigan farmers to the tune of $265 million over five years. Find out if your congressman voted to strengthen Michigan's economy. (BTW: Here's a hilarious diary about the farm bill at Daily Kos.)
- LSJ: Actions Speak Louder than Words. Listen up, Walberg: "As one of my political journalism mentors once said, 'When in doubt, look at the votes.' It's as simple as that."
- Mount Pleasant Morning Sun: Eric goes to town regarding Clifford Taylor.
- Freep: State law commission investigates Gorcyca. A rising star in the Republican party being investigated? Right, Scotty, like that ever happens! {/snark} (Gorcyca is Oakland County's Prosecutor.
- Detroit News: Iris Salters (MEA): Reasing ensures success. As an educator, Salters ought to know a thing or two about the importance of reading with respect to childhood development. It should be noted, BTW, that Salters was an MDP Officer-At-Large (and perhaps still is, although I don't know for sure).
- AP: President Bush to honor University of Michigan math professor. Insert joke here.
7/27/2007
The WeekEnder: July 27-29, 2007
Only 151 days remain until Christmas - so it must be time for the fifth episode of The WeekEnder! The WeekEnder is a weekly series that will provide a hodgepodge of information to fill your soul, make you laugh, make you cry, and inspire you.
- Congress acts to implement 9/11 recommendations
- 9/11, Katrina rescue hero dies
- I'll drink to that
- Do you recall...?
- Searching for Good
- Who needs work when you can vacation?
- Blumenthal at the College Republicans Convention
- Advice from a General
- Leno tells it like it is
- Not a victim to what's popular
Good news: Congress gets serious about protecting America
Which party do YOU trust to keep America safe?
It's great to have a majority in Congress that actually cares about protecting America.Congress sent President Bush legislation Friday to intensify anti-terror efforts in the U.S., shifting money to high-risk states and cities and expanding screening of air and sea cargo to stave off future Sept. 11-style attacks.
The measure carries out major recommendations of the independent 9/11 Commission.The bill, passed by the House on a 371-40 vote, ranks among the top accomplishments of the six-month-old Democratic Congress. The Senate approved the measure late Thursday by 85-8, and the White House said the president would sign the bill.
Six years after the Sept. 11 attacks and three years after the 9/11 Commission made its recommendations, "Congress is finally embracing what the 9/11 families have been saying all along," said Homeland Security Committee Chairman Bennie Thompson, D-Miss. "It takes a willingness to do things a different way."
Bad news: You Were A Good Dog, Jake
There's a special place in doggie heaven for Jake the Rescue Dog:
Maid busted for serving boss water with urineA black Labrador who became a national canine hero after burrowing through white-hot, smoking debris in search of survivors at the World Trade Center site died Wednesday after a battle with cancer.
"But against all odds he became a world-class rescue dog," said Flood, a member of Utah Task Force 1, one of eight federal search-and-rescue teams that desperately looked for human remains at ground zero.
On the evening of his team‘s arrival, Jake walked into a fancy Manhattan restaurant wearing his search-and-rescue vest and was promptly treated to a free steak dinner under a table.
After Hurricane Katrina, Flood and Jake drove 30 hours from Utah to Mississippi, where they searched through the rubble of flooded homes in search of survivors.
I hope your dinner has digested:
Blog highlight of the week: RecallsAn Indonesian maid has been jailed for six days in Hong Kong for serving her boss a cup of water containing urine, a newspaper reported Wednesday.
The 29-year-old pleaded guilty to a charge of "administering poison or other destructive or noxious substance with intent to injure," but insisted she had used the urine to treat a skin condition and its appearance in her employer's cup was a mistake.
Her boss, Szeto Ching-han, smelled the urine after asking for a cup of water, and then asked the maid to drink it -- which she did. Szeto, however, kept the liquid to have it tested in a lab, the South China Morning Post said.
Given recent threats by extreme-right tax-haters to recall state lawmakers, Rich at Honest Errors has a few words of satire poking fun at Michigan's most prominent anti-tax figure, Leon Drolet:
Asked if he thought those moves might be considered extreme by Michigan’s voters, he replied, “Not my Michigan voters.” When it was pointed out that he didn’t have voters anymore now that he is retired from the state House, he exclaimed, “It doesn’t matter. When are you guys [in the press] going to get it? I want my way, dammit!”Link of the week: GoodSearch
Ever wish you could raise money for your favorite charity just by doing something you already do everyday? With GoodSearch, you can. I’ll let the site’s About page do the talking:
GoodSearch is a search engine which donates 50-percent of its revenue to the charities and schools designated by its users. It's a simple and compelling concept. You use GoodSearch exactly as you would any other search engine. Because it’s powered by Yahoo!, you get proven search results. The money GoodSearch donates to your cause comes from its advertisers — the users and the organizations do not spend a dime!Photo of the Week: India's Media Gets It
Video of the Week: Generation Chickenhawk with the College Republicans
Who's afraid of a little Max Blumenthal?
Quote of the week: George S. Patton
"Never tell people how to do things. Tell them what to do and they will surprise you with their ingenuity."
Joke of the Week: Leno on Bush's approval rating
"Things not looking good for President Bush. His approval rating has dropped so low the only thing he's above now is the law."
Final thought
Whosever idea it was to start News From Around the Blogworld deserves kudos. It's a weekly series pf highlights from statewide progressive blogs from around the country (here's this week's edition on Michigan Liberal). It's yet another great way to see what's happening in other parts of the country - and a reminder that all politics really is local.