Bits of Tid: March 31, 2011

• Guess who wants Wisconsin State Senator Randy Hopper recalled? His wife.


• It looks like Tim Pawlenty is on the cusp of running for President. He and Huckabee may be two of the more formidable challengers for Obama - Pawlenty, perhaps more than Huckabee. Neither of them have much (that I know of, at least) that could be used against them. At least not on the order of Romney's flip-flopping, Gingrich's many scandals, and Bachmann's extremism.


• For those of you complaining that Obama shouldn't spend time filling out his bracket, with all that's going on in the world: (a) Even the President needs a break - especially Obama, given all he's had to deal with; (b) Don't tell me you wouldn't fill out a bracket if you were President; and (c) Explain why you (most of you, anyway) voted for this guy:


• For those of you complaining about Obama being in Latin America while ordering airstrikes in Libya: It's the 21st Century. Everything the President needs to make these decisions is easily accessible when he's traveling abroad.


• We don't know all the details about Libya (as much as some of us think we do). But I do know that after 8 years of You-Know-Who, it's good to have a thinking President again.


• Don't you just hate it when government butts in and tells us what kind of internet service we can and cannot get?


• Will someone PLEASE stand up for those downtrodden, overtaxed big businesses?


• Perhaps Hillary should reconsider not running for President again: 66% of Americans view her favorably.

DNC Day 2 recap

Montana Governor Brian Schweitzer


Michigan Governor Jennifer Granholm


Keynote Address by Former Virginia Governor Mark Warner


Senator Hillary Clinton


Today is the day Obama and Biden will officially be nominated by the Democratic Party for the offices of President and Vice President of the United States. Biden will accept his nomination tonight. More here.

Lame and pathetic

Lame-thetic, if you will.

Hillary Clinton today brought up the assassination of Sen. Robert Kennedy while defending her decision to stay in the race against Barack Obama.

"My husband did not wrap up the nomination in 1992 until he won the California primary somewhere in the middle of June, right? We all remember Bobby Kennedy was assassinated in June in California. I don't understand it," she said, dismissing calls to drop out.

Hillary Diane Rodham Clinton, you have reached a new low. From pandering while in Congress, to lying up the wazoo, to treating the good people of Michigan and Florida as your pawns, to even suggesting that McCain is more qualified to lead the country than you, your slash-and-burn-your-way-to-the-White House tactics are abominable.

There ought to be no place for these antics in the Democratic Party of the United States. Our party is a big tent, but not big enough to hold that kind of crap.

You are needlessly hurting the Party of Jefferson and FDR, while removing any doubt that it is you, Senator Clinton, and not Senator Obama, who is unfit to govern this nation.

Delegate Math - or, Why It's Just About Over

LAST UPDATED MAY 25 11:15PM

(If not for Democratic Convention Watch, this post would be nonexistent. A HUGE hat tip to DCW!)

WARNING: The contents of this post may be VERY CONFUSING!

So why do most of the pundits, analysts, etc., agree that the race is over even as Hillary Clinton fights on? It's all in the numbers.

Anyway, here is the current total delegate count as of Thursday afternoon, not including Florida or Michigan delegates:

TOTAL DELEGATES: 4,049

• Needed for Majority: 2,025
• Obama’s total: 1,982; 43 from majority (note a)
  
• Clinton’s total: 1,781; 244 from majority
• Edwards: 7 (a)
  
• Pledged delegates in remaining contests: 86
• Undetermined superdelegate votes: 195 (b)
  
• Total undetermined delegate votes: 288 (b, c)
  
• Percent of remaining total delegates Obama needs to clinch: 14.9% (d)
  
• Percent of remaining pledged delegates Obama needs to clinch: 50% (e)
  

Notes:
(a) Edwards has received 18 pledged delegates from the states in which he competed. Eleven have since said they will support Obama at the Convention; these are included in Obama's total. The other seven are still marked as being for Edwards.
(b) Includes 31 unpledged add-on delegate positions that have yet to be filled.
(c) Includes the 7 Edwards delegates who haven't endorsed Clinton or Obama; the 86 pledged delegate votes in yet-to-be-held contests; and the 195 undetermined superdelegate votes.
(d) This is the number Obama needs to clinch (43) divided by the number of undetermined delegate votes.
(e) Same as (d), excluding superdelegates.

Here's a way to look at it: Imagine it's Election Night, and you hear a network anchor state that "With 932% of the precincts reporting, Candidate A is leading 53% to 47%." By that point, they would probably call Candidate A the winner. Well, more than 93% of the delegates have been allocated to one candidate or the other, and guess what? Obama has won 53% of them. So, in a sense, with 93% reporting, he leads 53-47%.

So, without Florida and Michigan, Obama only needs to win about one in five of the remaining delegates to clinch the nomination. In only three states has Obama won less than 1/3 of the pledged delegates. And superdelegate endorsements have overwhelmingly favored Obama in recent weeks.

The above list includes all pledged and unpledged delegates. The following list includes only pledged delegates. The pledged-delegate count is important since many people, including some superdelegates, have suggested that whoever gets the most pledged delegates ought to win the nomination.

PLEDGED DELEGATES: 3,253

• Needed for majority: 1,627
• Obama: 1,659.5; 32.5 more than needed for majority
• Clinton: 1,500.5
• Undetermined pledged delegates: 93 (a)

NOTE:
(a) Includes 86 delegates from remaining contests and the 7 Edwards delegates who haven't picked Clinton or Obama.

So, even if Hillary were to win every single one of those remaining 95 pledged delegates, she would still need 149 (or 76.4%) of the 195 unallocated superdelegates to go her way.

That is all but impossible. In order to get all of the remaining pledged delegates, by party rules she would need to take 85% of the vote in all of the remaining states. That's on top of getting Edwards's 9 remaining delegates to vote against the person their candidate endorsed.

Hillary must rely on seeing to it that Michigan's and Florida's delegates are seated at the Convention. Even if they are seated, the math still looks pretty rocky for her.

The proposal the Michigan Democratic Party is putting forward to seat our delegates would give Hillary 69 delegates and Obama 59. This splits the difference between the 73-55 split the Clinton camp wants (based on the results of the January 15 primary) and the 64-64 tie Obama wanted.

The proposal most often mentioned with regards to Florida's delegates would involve cutting that state’s pledged-delegate votes in half, so each delegate would get 1/2 of one vote. Clinton won 105 delegates in the January primary; Obama 69; and Edwards, 11. Cut in half, these figures come out to 52.5-34.5-5.5.

Both proposals call for full votes for superdelegates (i.e. their votes wouldn’t be cut in half). Hillary leads among Florida superdelegates 8-5 with 17 undeclared, and in Michigan she leads 7-5 with 13 undeclared.

These proposals, if approved, would add 220.5 pledged delegates and 55 superdelegates to the mix. The new numbers would be:

TOTAL DELEGATE VOTES: 4,324

• Needed for majority: 2,162.5
• Obama: 2,085.5; 77 from clinching nomination
• Clinton: 1,917.5; 245 from clinching nomination
• Edwards: 12.5
• Uncommitted superdelegates: 225
• Total undetermined delegate votes: 323.5
• Percent of remaining total delegates Obama needs to clinch: 23.8%

PLEDGED DELEGATE VOTES: 3,473.5

• Needed for majority: 1,737
• Obama: 1,753; 16 more than needed for majority
• Clinton: 1,622
• Unallocated pledged delegates: 98.5

Look! Even under this scenario, Obama has already locked up the pledged-delegate lead! So, winning all of the remaining 99.5 pledged delegates would leave Hillary 148.5 superdelegates (66% of the remaining delegates) from the nomination.

And again, it bears repeating that Obama will almost certainly get a good share of those remaining pledged delegates, thus padding his pledged-delegate majority and likely garnering even more superdelegate support while raising the bar even higher for Hillary.

Match point, Obama.

AP:

Virginia state House member Jennifer McClellan is one of at least nine superdelegates who have switched from Clinton to Obama since the Super Tuesday primaries on Feb. 5. There have been no public switches in the other direction.

"I think the time has come to support Senator Obama as the likely nominee," McClellan said in a conference call with reporters. "Given what happened last night, it's very unlikely we will have a different result, and it is time to come together as a party and prepare for victory against John McCain in November."

Folks, we are on the cusp of having Mr. Barack Obama, a Senator of the State of Illinois, as the Democratic Nominee for President of the United States.

Think about that.

The Party of Jefferson and Jackson, of FDR and JFK, is about to nominate as its candidate for President someone other than a white male - something neither major party has done.

If you had come up to me on the day Bush was inaugurated in 2001 and told me that Bush's successor would not be a white man, I would've been surprised, given that there weren't many people considerd to be leading presidential contenders who weren't white men. You had Gore, Bradley, Gephardt, Daschle, Kerry... and maybe that new Senator from New York, Hillary Clinton.

If you had told me that the 44th President would be Barack Obama, I would've said, "Who?"

But now, it is all but certain that Obama - who, as a state senator, wasn't well-known outside Chicago and Springfield - will be the Democratic Nominee for the highest office in the land.

Eight months and twelve days from now, our country's new president will have taken that oath to 'preserve, protect, and defend the Constitution of the United States.' God willing, that President will be the former constitutional law professor who, at a young age, turned down prestigious offers from high-profile law firms to focus on building community. Someone whose words and actions have inspired millions to take responsibility for the future of their country.

Someone who has already led this country in ways unheard of in years... without even holding the title of President.

Someone the likes of whose character and integrity we have not seen in that Oval Office in years.

As you well know, history is filled with both great and mediocre Presidents. Washington. Jefferson. Lincoln. The Roosevelts. Wilson. Truman. Eisenhower. Kennedy.

Buchanan. Andrew Johnson. Hoover. Nixon. The Bushes.

Ten years from now, our 44th President - and, who knows, maybe our 45th President - will have left office. How will George W. Bush's successor be viewed on May 8, 2018?

Maybe as someone who succeeded in solving, or at least beginning to solve, some of the most vexing challenges ever faced by an American President.

Maybe as someone who utterly failed.

Maybe as a Gerald Ford-type figure - someone whose effort and determination weren't enough, at least in the eyes of public opinion.

Hopefully, we will see him as someone who faced the vexing problems facing our nation and world with the utmost character and determination.

With Obama, I see at least the potential for greatness. Sure, he hasn't even been elected yet. But if he handles the many pressures and challenges of the world stage as well as he has handled the pressures of the campaign, there's cause for optimism.

Cautious optimism. But optimism nonetheless.

We all have an important role to play in order for that to happen. I invite you to get involved with the campaign as the election gets closer. Write letters to the editor. Tell your friends and family members why you are a Democrat, and why they should be too.

As the Senator says, Our Moment Is Now.

For your YouTubing pleasure

Bob Schieffer on flag lapel pins:



The DNC's first ad against McCain:



Can Hillary still win the nomination?

Bits of Tid: March 14, 2008

Take Two Edition

• So do you have any plans for June 3?


• Barack Obama has condemned remarks made by his pastor:
  

  Let me say at the outset that I vehemently disagree and strongly condemn the statements that have been the subject of this controversy. I categorically denounce any statement that disparages our great country or serves to divide us from our allies. I also believe that words that degrade individuals have no place in our public dialogue, whether it's on the campaign stump or in the pulpit. In sum, I reject outright the statements by Rev. Wright that are at issue.

  So where is Hillary's condemnation of Geraldine Ferraro's remark that Obama is only where he is because he is black?


• Victory on FISA!




• Michigan's food-stamp reform will likely be adjusted somewhat, and Sen. Martha Scott (D) is happy about that.


• Caption the famous picture of Bush hugging McCain!

Bits of Tid: March 3, 2008

Marching Into March Edition

• Obama is now 646 delegates away from clinching the nomination, while Hillary needs 758 more. 370 delegates are at stake on Tuesday. If Obama gets more delegates than Hillary on Tuesday and Hillary does not drop out, expect more 'superdelegates' (more on that word in a moment) to get behind Obama. That, and the fact that rural Wyoming and heavily black Mississippi are next up on the calendar cannot bode well for Hillary.
  
• Obama's campaign has already helped the Democratic Party, whether or not he ends up with the nomination. And as one Daily Kos diarist argues, Obama has done a marvelous job supporting Dean's 50-State Strategy. I supported Howard in the primaries in 2003/04 and am proud to say that I am still a fan of his to this day.
  
• I think I just might start writing a book in the coming days and weeks, about my experiences in my life thus far (I'm 20), my views on politics and government, why I'm a Democrat, where I believe we need to move the Democratic Party and the nation, and more. Working subtitle: A 20-year-old's Thoughts on Politics and the State of the World. Of course I would be surprised if I finish it before I turn 21, and even then titles and subtitles change all the time.
  
• Speaking of books, I am currently reading The 21 Indispensable Qualities of a Leader by John C. Maxwell and Everyday Leadership by Dan Mulhern. Boith are good reads. Reviews forthcoming!
  
• Back to the word 'superdelegate.' It's my latest pick for Lake Superior State's Banished Words List. Why?
  
  

  What, exactly, makes them 'super?' Do they wear tights and brightly colored capes and fly around the country trying to save America from some evil force of which I'm unaware?

• This week's edition of Sunday Coffee Talk on Michigan Liberal has a few changes. I hope you like it!

Weekend races and delegate counts

It looks like Barack's gonna end up 4 for 4 in this weekend's contests (Maine results here).

So the momentum is on Obama's side... but the delegate race is still very close.

The current count, shown on the right, includes pledged delegates to the Democratic National Convention. When you factor the unpledged delegates, Barack Obama leads 1134-1131. Considering that Edwards has not released the 26 delegates he got before he dropped out - that is, they're still committed to vote for him - the candidates can claim a total of 2,291 delegates.

That gives Obama 49.5% of the delegate vote, Hillary 49.4%, and Edwards 1.1%. And in order to win the nomination, a candidate must have 50% +1.

Incidentally, Hillary has replaced her campaign manager.

Now, as for the Republicans: Runaway for McCain, right? Eh, maybe not. Because while McCain still leads the delegate count by a wide margin, Huckabee went 2 for 3 in Saturday's primaries. I have a feeling that with Romney out, conservative voters who think McCain's too liberal will unite behind Huckabee.

Still, the smart money is on McCain, and as long as many independent voters feel that he will be the presumptive nominee for the Republicans, they will opt to vote in the more competitive Democratic primary, benefiting Obama.

Unless Romney flip-flops and gets back in the race soon - which I'm not sure I'd be all that surprised to see.

Oh, and by the way: Yesterday was the day Michigan Democrats were originally scheduled to hold their caucus. Ironic, isn't it? The majority of the MDP leadership wanted to hold it on January 15 because they figured it would give us more influence. Alas, Michigan would've been the most populous state to have held a contest this weekend if they'd stuck with February 9, meaning we would've had a great deal of influence and attention - and the certainty of knowing our delegates would be seated in Denver.

Candidates, others react to Bush's State of the Union address

The official Democratic response to the State of the Union was given by Kansas Governor Kathleen Sebelius:



The Presidential candidates offered their two cents as well. Here's Barack Obama:



Hillary Clinton:

President Bush had one final chance tonight to acknowledge what the American people have known for years: that the economy is not working for middle class families. Unfortunately, what he offered was more of the same - a frustrating commitment to the same failed policies that helped turn record surpluses into large deficits, and push a thriving twenty-first century economy to the brink of recession.

John Edwards:

"The president tonight renewed his call for an economic recovery plan. But the plan he and Congress have offered leaves out tens of millions of Americans who need help the most. This plan would take months to have any impact, and the people I meet everyday on the campaign trail do not have months to wait. These people are hurting now and need this help now. Over the past seven years, typical workers' paychecks have failed to keep up with inflation, millions of families are facing the loss of their homes to foreclosures, health insurance premiums have doubled, and families are spending $1,000 more a year on gasoline. The State of the Union may be interesting political theater, but until we find bold solutions to the challenges facing the country, we will be stuck with the same old small, Washington answers."

Michigan politicians with their reactions include Carl Levin:

“We need to turn the page on President Bush’s ‘more of the same’ policies and priorities that he continued to offer in his State of the Union address. Democrats and Republicans in Congress need to seek common ground to turn that page.

Debbie Stabenow:

"Unfortunately, the President is pushing a stimulus package that leaves out one of the quickest, most effective ways to stimulate our economy – extending unemployment insurance. Economists and experts from both sides of the aisle agree that extending unemployment insurance will immediately boost consumer spending, while allowing individuals more time to search for a job in a difficult market. I will continue to lead this effort in the Senate Finance Committee."

John Conyers:

Near the end of his speech, the President asked us to "trust the people," and promised that as long as we do so, "our Nation will prosper, our liberty will be secure, and the State of our Union will remain strong." There's a great post on DailyKos about that passage, showing a series of statistics of how many Americans disagree with the President on Iraq, warrantless surveillance and torture. I am also certain that if you asked the millions of Americans in danger of foreclosure, or bankruptcy due to medical bills, or parents with children in failing schools, they would have a very different take on the state of our union than the President. So in that last section of the address, I found a ray of hope--a year from now, we will be addressed by a new President, and I trust that the people will reflect on the hardships and disappointments brought on by the Bush Administration, and that they will elect someone ready to lead the country in a new direction.

Michigan Primary Bits of Tid: January 16, 2008

• Hillary won an underwhelming 55% of the vote, while 40% voted Uncommitted. Hillary won 73 DNC delegates, while Uncommitted won 55. I call Hillary's win underwhelming because she was supposed to dominate this election. As John Nichols of The Nation writes:
  

  As the only leading Democratic contender to keep her name on the ballot after Michigan officials moved their primary ahead of the opening date scheduled by the Democratic National Committee, Clinton was perfectly positioned. She had no serious opposition. She also had the strong support of top Michigan Democrats such as Governor Jennifer Granholm and U.S. Senator Debbie Stabenow.
  
  Usually, a prominent presidential contender running a primary campaign without serious opposition and with strong in-state support from party leaders can count on winning 90 percent or more of the vote. That's how it went for George Bush when he was running without serious opposition in Republican primaries in 2004, and for Bill Clinton when he was essentially unopposed in the Democratic primaries in 1996.



• On Michigan Liberal:
  
  • Mark Grebner tells us how each district voted.
    
  • Phil offers an analysis of West Michigan numbers.
    
  • Nirmal crunches the exit poll data.
    
  • Laura analyzes the youth vote numbers. Uncommitted actually outperformed Hillary among young voters!


• You gotta love it: The Michigan Republican Party erroneously sent out a press release congratulating McCain on the victory he didn't have. Oops.
  


• One more bit from Michigan Liberal, written by yours truly. Did holding the primary early have the desired effect of giving Michigan more influence in the nominating process? No.
  

  Had we held a February 5 caucus - an idea which I supported even when the caucus was set for February 9 all the while other states were moving theirs to February 5 - Michigan would have been the fourth-largest state with a primary or caucus that day (and the second-largest not including the home states of the front-runners). Candidates would have come to Michigan, and their campaigns - as well as our Party - would have been better for it.
  
  Yet some people decided that it was better for Dems to break DNC rules (arcane as they are) and base our delegate count on a primary that would not have gone on if not for four extreme conservatives on the state Supreme Court. MDP leaders knew that some of the candidates would not be campaigning if they decided to go with a primary, yet most of them chose to go ahead with it anyway.
  
  The result? Instead of having more influence in our nominating process, we have at the moment pretty much no influence (and it is uncertain whether we will have influence in the end). Instead of unity, as the LA Times put it, we have rancor. Instead of Michigan issues being at the forefront of the campaign, we are once again seen as a laughing stock to the rest of the country.
  

Hillary ekes out New Hampshire upset; more analysis

With most of the votes in, CNN and other outlets say that Hillary Clinton and John McCain have each won their respective parties' primaries in New Hampshire. Time for me once again to don my pundit cap. (Apparently I look a lot more attractive with a pundit cap than without one.)

In terms of pledged delegates to the Democratic and Republican national conventions, Barack Obama still holds a thinner-than-Wheat-Thins lead of 25-24 over Clinton, with Edwards at 18. Romney has 24 delegates to 18 for Mike Huckabee, 10 for John McCain, 6 for Fred Thompson, 2 for Ron Paul, and 1 for Duncan Hunter. Again, a candidate must win a majority of the convention delegates to win the nomination. More on how delegates are selected later.

If nothing else, Hillary and McCain proved with this primary that they are top-notch contenders and are both very much in it. Big victory for Hillary? Yes. Setback for Obama? Yes. Fluke? We'll find out soon enough.

For Hillary, this win should remind everyone that it's not over yet, despite her disappointing third-place finish in Iowa. Must do well in: Michigan. I mean, there are five choices on the ballot in Tuesday's primary: Clinton; Gravel; Kucinich; Gravel; Dodd; and Uncommitted. Gravel and Kucinich were the bottom finishers in both Iowa and New Hampshire, while Dodd is no longer running. More on Michigan's primary in the next couple days.

For Obama, this could in many respects be considered a disappointment. He was, after all, leading by several points in most polls leading up to the primary. He had a certain amount of momentum that has now been lost. That said, only twice in the last ten elections has a Democrat won every single Democratic primary and caucus, and Obama only lost New Hampshire by two points. Also, as I mentioned, he holds a one-vote lead in the delegate count. If nothing else, this should motivate Obama supporters and remind them not to take things for granted. Oh, and polls aren't always that reliable. Must do well in: South Carolina. Nearly half of South Carolinians who took CNN's exit poll in the 2004 primary were black. Neither New Hampshire nor Iowa can be considered nearly that racially diverse.

Edwards has pulled two disappointing performances in a row. Both Clinton and Obama received twice as many votes as Edwards in New Hampshire. Must do well in: South Carolina, for three reasons. First, he was born in Seneca, SC. Second, he currently lives in North Carolina. Third, he won South Carolina over Kerry in 2004. Should he follow his disappointing showing in the Granite State with another one in the Palmetto State, look for many in the 'Anybody-but-Hillary' crowd to ratchet up the pressure on Edwards to drop out and let said anti-Hillary crowd more or less unite behind Obama.

Richardson has been a much bigger disappointment than Edwards. Richardson took 2% in Iowa and 5% in New Hampshire, failing to win a single delegate to the Convention. Must do well in: Nevada, with its heavy Latino population.

Just a few months ago, McCain was all but counted out. His campaign looked like it was on its deathbed. Yet with a third-place finish in Iowa and a victory in New Hampshire, it appears that (to borrow an expression) rumors of the death of his campaign were greatly exaggerated. Must do well in: Michigan, where it has been a battle between him and Romney from the get-go.

Romney won the barely publicized Wyoming caucus last Saturday and has finished second in the other two states. Despite their second-place finishes, he and Obama each actually lead their National Convention delegate counts. Still he must do well in: Michigan, which his father governed from 1963-1969.

What happened to Huckabee? McCain tripled Huckabee's total in the Granite State, and Romney came close to pulling off the same feat. South Carolina has a higher percentage of evangelical and born-again Christians, and regional favoritism could benefit him. Thus, he must do well in: South Carolina.

Rudy Giuliani edged Ron Paul after finishing behind him in Iowa. Fred Thompson took a dismal 1%. Why is Duncan Hunter still running?

Iowa results - and where we go from here

Here are the near-final Iowa numbers from CNN as of 2:45 AM:

Obama - 38%
Edwards - 30%
Clinton - 29%
Richardson - 2%
Biden - 1%

Biden and Chris Dodd have dropped out.

Huckabee - 34%
Romney - 26%
Thompson - 13%
McCain - 13%
Paul - 10%
Giuliani - 3%
Hunter - 0%

Time for some analysis. By winning, Huckabee and Obama have momentum heading into next Tuesday's New Hampshire primary. The Iowa Democratic caucus was seen as a very close three-way contest amongst Clinton, Edwards, and Obama. The Republican caucus was seen as a toss-up between Huckabee and Romney.

For Obama to win by eight points, therefore, should be considered particularly good news for him. Also good for him is that quite a few more independents - a voting bloc where he did particularly well in Iowa - are expected to vote in New Hampshire. Also, the fact that he won an overwhelmingly white state tells us that, well, his appeal crosses racial lines. If he can follow his win in Iowa with another one in New Hampshire, then he will have high expectations for South Carolina, whose black population is quite high.

Edwards really needed to do well here. Had he finished behind Hillary, I doubt his campaign would've ended, but his organization was said to be lagging behind Hillary and Obama in other states. In other words, unlike Obama and Hillary, most of his chips were down in Iowa, and he needed to do well there to get some mo'. Now he needs to do well in South Carolina, where he was born. That said, his second-place finish couldn't hurt too much; for him to beat Hillary (albeit by a small margin) gives him some momentum.

For Hillary - long considered the front-runner - to finish behind both Obama and Edwards has got to be disappointing. Having said that, she and Obama are the two with the most organized campaigns. She had been leading in several states. Whether she gets any momentum from Michigan - where she is one of four candidates in contention (along with 'Uncommitted') - remains to be seen, since Michigan has lost its delegates because of the fact that holding a primary on January 15 violated Party rules.

Richardson needs to do well somewhere. Preferably Nevada, with its high Latino population. With just 2% in Iowa, his campaign is on the ropes.

Romney has to do well in New Hampshire for two reasons. One, the state he governed, Massachusetts, borders New Hampshire. Two, Iowa has a higher percentage of evangelical and born-again Republican voters than New Hampshire; they are seen as the main reason Huckabee won. If Huckabee can use his Iowa momentum and overcome those obstacles to win New Hampshire, then he is the clear front0-runner heading into the Michigan primary a week later. (Michigan Republicans lost only half of their delegates for scheduling the primary on January 15.) If Romney loses New Hampshire, then he MUST hold off Huckabee here in Michigan, which his father governed during much of the 1960s.

For McCain, Thompson, and Giuliani, it's a fight to stay in the top tier. Ron Paul could yet pull off a surprise, since he seems to be sharing in the momentum. Why Duncan Hunter is still in the race beats me.

You might look at these returns and think, 'well, Obama did great.' I, an Obama supporter, am pleased that he won. But you see, what matters is how many delegates to the Democratic and Republican National Conventions are won by each candidate. Obama holds a narrow lead with 16 Democratic delegates, followed by Clinton at 15 while Edwards has 14. Huckabee leads the Republican delegate count with 17, followed by Romney at 12, McCain and Thompson at 3 apiece, and Paul with 2.

Even more interesting? Both parties require that a candidate gets a majority of the delegate votes at the convention. No candidate has a majority on either side.

Now, here's what's likely to happen. As the primary season continues, a clearer picture will emerge on both sides of the aisle. Seeing writing on the wall, more candidates will follow Biden and Dodd out of the race, meaning less competition for those who are still in it. In 2004 eight Democrats were in the running leading up to the caucuses. Dick Gephardt dropped out after Iowa; Joe Lieberman exited after New Hampshire; Wes Clark's swan song came following voting in Tennessee and Virginia; and Howard Dean's downfall was completed after the Wisconsin primary. After 'Super Tuesday' which was then in March and not February) John Edwards dropped out.

In all likelihood, as candidates drop out they will release their delegates. That is, they will allow the delegates pledged to vote for them to instead vote for someone else. In 2004, for example, many of the candidates received delegates, but only Kerry won a majority of the delegates. The other candidates released their delegates, allowing them to vote for Kerry at the convention and providing a near-unanimous vote for Kerry.

So there you have it. Obama and Huckabee are by no means assured of their nominations. But they are the front-runners and they do have that all-important momentum heading into the rest of the primary season.

Bits of Tid: December 5, 2007

8,000 Hours Away Edition

• As of today at 4PM EST, we will have exactly 8,000 hours until Election Day 2008. Polls will open in Michigan starting 8,000 hours from 11 PM.
• FWIW: If all Hillary can attack Obama for is an essay he wrote in kindergarten, then he must be good.
• I must say, I'll be more worried about the Dems' White House hopes in 2008 if Mike Huckabee got the nomination than I would be if anyone else got the Repub nod. People in Arkansas like him, and until tonight I hadn't heard much dirt on him. Until I read this.
• Got gift cards? Use them. You may think I'm telling you something obvious, but lots of them go unused.
• Is activism an aphrodisiac for you? This online petition will be sent to the Legislature asking for action on legislation that will protect our Great Lakes water. They're aiming for 5,000 signatures.
• You. Must. Check. Out. Progress Michigan.
• Sign seen on the door of a study lounge in CMU's Cobb Hall:

  This room is for studying books, not anatomy.

• I have one more nomination for Lake Superior State's Banished Words List, which I will reveal to you this weekend. Stay tuned!

Clark and Stabenow endorse Hillary; my thoughts

Senator Debbie Stabenow endorsed Hillary Clinton's campaign for President yesterday:

"I said, this is somebody I want to get to know because it was somebody whose values I share," Stabenow said Saturday after officially endorsing her good friend's 2008 presidential bid.

...

Because Michigan and New York share many similar concerns, like manufacturing, agriculture and Great Lakes issues, Stabenow said Clinton understands the state's needs.

"She has the ability, experience, knowledge and understanding that, from day one, we need to make changes in Michigan," Stabenow said during a telephone conference call. "We in Michigan understand what it's like to be invisible to this president.

"She will make sure the people of Michigan are on her radar screen, visible. I know that she gets it for us."

I admire Sen. Stabenow. Sure, I have disagreed - even quite angrily - with her on some issues, but she has her heart in the right place. That said, count this as another area on which she and I disagree.

To be honest, Stabenow could have said most of the same things about other contenders, such as Obama or Edwards. Honestly, I do not see how Clinton has any better grasp - or even as good a grasp - on the issues Michigan faces as do Edwards, Obama, or Kucinich.

Stabenow wasn't the only person I admire who endorsed Hillary yesterday. Here's what Wesley Clark has to say:

Senator Hillary Clinton has earned the support of millions of Americans in her campaign for president -- and today I am pleased to count myself among them. The world has reached a critical point, and we need a leader in the White House with the courage, intelligence and humility to navigate through many troubling challenges to our security at home and abroad. I believe Senator Clinton is that leader, and I whole-heartedly endorse her for President of the United States. Senator Clinton and I share a worldview in which diplomacy is the best first-strike tool in our arsenal; in today's complicated global system, the United States should be making more friends than enemies."

Never before have so many Americans had our well-being so closely tied to world events. Our economic and national security has become more complicated than ever before, and we deserve a leader who draws on wisdom, compassion, intelligence and moral courage -- in short, we need Hillary Clinton. She is tough but fair, a rock-solid leader equal to the many weighty challenges ahead of us."

I was so happy to see Gen. Clark at CMU last spring. He was briefly my favorite for the 2008 Democratic nomination, but after months passed without an announcement from him, I gradually leaned toward supporting other candidates.

I must say, however, that I disagree even more with what Clark had to say than I do with what Stabenow said.

If Clinton had as much moral courage as the other candidates, why did she support the original authorization to go to war in Iraq? Furthermore, I do agree with Clark that "diplomacy is the best first-strike tool in our arsenal" - which is why I'm even more puzzled that he endorsed the candidate who said it was naïve for a President to talk with America's adversaries (a notion with which many experts, among them Zbigniew Brzezinski, disagree).

Whether these endorsements give a major boost to Clinton's campaign is unclear. I will say, however, that I strongly disagree with both Clark and Stabenow - yet at the same time I still hold both of them in high regard.

Check back soon, hopefully later this week, to find out who I will support for President.

My thoughts on the Democratic candidates

All in all I’d say we have a stronger group of candidates than we did in 2004. I was enthusiastic about Dean almost from start to finish (with spurts of support for Clark and Kucinich as well). Any of my top three picks for 2008, however, would make very good Presidents.

Given what has happened over the last 78 months in this nation, America needs a capable leader who can not only help clean up the mess of the past six and a half years, but someone who will raise the bar in Washington. Moreover, we need a President who will remind us of what it means to truly be Americans.

So here is how I rank the candidates at this moment:

Obama: Very inspiring. Message of hope lures thousands to rallies, which is unusual for this point in an election. Has rock-star appeal that won’t hurt him come General Election time. Has a very detailed issues page on his website - probably the most detailed of any candidates’. Remember, we’re talking about the Presidency of the United States. A nation in desperate need of leadership needs someone like Obama, who continues to insist that we must be united if we are to bring about meaningful change in America. Inexperienced; Perhaps, but so were FDR and Lincoln. (Not to say Obama will be anythnig like those two.)

Edwards: Like Obama, has an excellent rags-to-riches story. Though I really like Obama at this point, Edwards has the best platform thus far. Seems to be the only person willing to talk about the divide between the elite class and ordinary Americans (‘Two Americas’). Vote for Iraq War is about the only thing stopping me from really supporting him.

Richardson: Has a full resume`. Again, our next President must be a strong leader; Bill has led a state and a Cabinet department, in addition to serving in Congress and as a UN Ambassador. His foreign-policy credentials are unmatched. Not all that charismatic like Obama, but makes up for it with his experience. Him being on the ticket would almost certainly swing New Mexico our way. Attracted 40% of the Republican vote in his re-election campaign last fall. Has actually called for a de-authorization of the war. Would complement the less experienced Obama or Edwards well as a VP candidate.

Kucinich: A staunch progressive with amazing ideas who isn't afraid to speak his mind. Comes from even more humble roots, having lived in a couple of cars at one point!

Dodd: Fierce critic of the war. Friend who interned for Stabenow last year says Dodd impressed him. Other than that, he doesn’t stand out in my mind much; I don’t see him as a good leader.

Clinton: Don’t get me wrong, she has some great ideas as well. But she is too polarizing a figure at a time when we really need a President who truly is a uniter, not a divider. Seems to me that while she’s married to Bill in a literal sense, in a figurative sense she’s ‘married’ to Corporate America.

Biden: Has foreign-policy credentials as chair of the Foreign Relations Committee. Would make a fine Secretary of State. Otherwise, less than inspiring, to be honest.

Gravel: Let’s just say I’ll bite my tongue.

Bits of Tid: June 21, 2007

• The big story of the week is NYC Mayor Mike Bloomberg's decision to bolt the GOP and become an independent. Many speculate that he'll run for the big prize as an independent. According to SurveyUSA, that just might help us win a few solidly red states!
  
  
• 26%.
  
  
• A rising star in the GOP gets busted for cocaine - but that's not all; he used it as a party favor for his GOP friends. AND he chairs Rudy's South Carolina campaign.
  
  
• Editor and Publisher:
  
  

  Only one in three Americans rate the economy today as either excellent or good, while the percentage saying the economy is getting better fell from 28% to 23% in one month.
  
  Gallup adds: For the first time this year, a majority of Americans are negative about the employment market, saying it is a bad time to find a quality job.

  
  Doesn't sound like a 'single-state recession' to me.
  
  
• He might represent Alaska, but Senator Ted Stevens (R-Series of Tubes) is in hot water. Incidentally, Stevens and longtime GOP Congressman Don Young, who represents all of Alaska, may be in some electoral hot water come next November.
  
  
• Kos puts polling into perspective.
  
  
• State Senate Minority Leader Mark Schauer endorses Hillary. Michigan Liberal erupts.
  
  
• The Michigan Democratic Party is looking into doing internet voting. Isabella County Democrats are none too fond of the idea, and neither do I.
  
  
• "Do-nothing Congress," my - you know.

Presidential Bits of Tid: May 29, 2007

75 weeks from now, America will elect its 44th President and its 47th Vice President. But before we get to that, I'd be remiss if I didn't mention an important birthday.

That handsome young man in the photo was born ninety years ago today, May 29, 1917.

You may know that at 43, Ted Kennedy's brother was the youngest person ever elected President (Teddy Roosevelt became President at age 42 after William McKinley was assassinated). You may noty know that Bill Clinton was just 46 when he was elected in 1992. Barack Obama will turn 47 in August 2008, at which time John Edwards will be 55. Now who's the youngster? ;-)

Turning our attention back to those who wish to count themselves among JFK's successors:

• Many of Obama's supporters say that, like JFK, he symbolizes hope - hope that a black person can become President, hope for an end to the era of bitter partisanship, hope for, well, better days and years ahead. Critics say he's all style and no substance. While certainly no one can doubt that he has inspired a great many people, I must say his issues page is the most comprehensive of any of the candidates' issues pages.
  
  
• Look what John Edwards wants to do for our servicemen and women. The entire plan is great, but I especially like his "Plan for Coming Home" and Military Families Advisory Board ideas.
  
  
• Bill Richardson is known among the 2008 hopefuls for being probably the most experienced of the 2008 hopefuls But he also has a lighter side:
  
  

  "My favorite team has always been the Red Sox. I'm also a Yankees fan... This is the thing about me. I can bring people together."

• Does Hillary have a front-runner for VP?
  
  

  Former Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack "has assumed a role in Sen. Hillary Clinton's Presidential campaign unlike any of the New York Democrat's other national advisers. He campaigns for her in Iowa and other key states, spends hours each week on the phone with donors and elected officials and has helped forge policy ideas Clinton presents on the campaign trail," the Des Moines Register reports.
  
  "In this way, Vilsack has made the quick and seemingly effortless transition from a one-time Clinton rival for the 2008 nomination to a go-to player in her campaign. Aides acknowledge privately that Vilsack's work for the campaign has the look of a rehearsal for the role of running mate, should Clinton win the nomination."

  
  I'll be honest: A Hillary/Vilsack ticket doesn't appeal to me very much.
  
  
• On the other side of the aisle, Sam Brownback is having trouble in his home state, taking just 18% in solidly red Kansas.

Bits of Tid: May 12, 2007

In 13,000 hours we should have a president-elect.

• It's time to de-authorize the war, say Biden, Richardson, and Clinton.
• Some big names are backing Chris Dodd's energy plan.
• The governors of Maryland and New Jersey are endorsing Hillary.
• Edwards is proposing an $8 billion program to make college more affordable. A drop in the bucket compared to the $425.1 billion price tag for the war.
• On the other side, Rudy Giuliani and Ann Romney (Mitt's wife) have both donated to Planned Parenthood. And you thought Rudy was the only pro-choice Republican out there?
• State Senators Alan Cropsey (who 'represents' Mount Pleasant) and Bill Hardiman (ex-mayor of my hometown of Kentwood) have each been featured recently in Michigan Liberal's Better Know an Obstriutionist series. (Don't forget to let your state legislators know your thoughts onm the state budget!)
• I don't care about the whole Paris Hilton thing, so shut up, media.

Hillary: Respect for Rutgers

You have probably heard of Don Imus's insult of the Rutgers women's basketball team. (If not, here's part of the story.) Hillary Clinton has spoken out on the situation, and asks us to send a message of support to the team.

When our children are young, we teach them to dream big and reach for the stars, and that if they work hard enough they can accomplish anything.

This year the Rutgers women's basketball team defied the odds and lived up to their dreams, providing inspiration to every little boy and girl beginning to pick up a ball or open a book. These remarkable young women reached the pinnacle of success and won the hearts of basketball fans everywhere with their grace, skill, and poise. They are role models deserving our praise -- and our support.

Don Imus's comments about them were nothing more than small-minded bigotry and coarse sexism. They showed a disregard for basic decency and were disrespectful and degrading to African Americans and women everywhere.

Please join me in sending the young women of Rutgers a message of respect and support. Show them that we are proud to stand with them and for them.

I don't exactly consider Hillary my #1 pick for president, but kudos to her for standing up for the right thing. I hope other candidates follow her lead.