10 reasons Mitt Romney isn't running

1. His poll numbers weren’t the right height.
2. Not sure he can get binders full of votes.
3. 47% of corporations are dependent on the government for corporate subsidies. He’s not going to get their votes.
4. Jeb Bush promised him he’d be ambassador to the Cayman Islands.
5. Speaking of which, Chris Christie threatened traffic problems in the Cayman Islands if he ran.
6. He lost a $10,000 bet, so the poor guy is down to his last $250 million.
7. Big Bird advised against it.
8. Training to beat Paul Ryan’s marathon time.
9. Rather than Mitt himself running, he’s getting Bain Capital to run instead. They’re people, my friend!
10. Wants to spend more quality time with his money.

Primary postmortem

Turnout barely exceeds 2008: Looks like Republican turnout will surpass the 2008 total by only about 125,000 votes, give or take a few. In 2008, 869,169 votes were cast for Republican candidates. This year, two things appeared to contribute to increased turnout:

• The Democratic race is uncontested this year, and some people who voted for Hillary or for Uncommitted in 2008 either did not vote this time or crossed over.
• Republicans invested much more heavily in Michigan this time than in 2008. Last time, the focus of the national Republican race was on Super Tuesday, as Romney was more or less expected to win the Michigan primary (which was three weeks before Super Tuesday). This time, a very close race (and the possibility of Romney losing what he should've won in a cakewalk) meant more interest in the race - thus also contributing to higher turnout.

Despite that, Republicans only got around 1 million votes this time.

A lot of money to barely win your 'home' state: Romney and his super PAC spent $3,807,082 in Michigan, while Santorum and his super PAC spent $2,182,786. At the moment, with a few precincts left to report, it comes out to $9.33 per vote for Romney and $5.79 per vote for Santorum. And what did Romney get for that? A 3-point win in a state he should've won in a cakewalk. And as Dana points out, Romney's 41% just barely exceeds his 2008 performance of 39%.

Exit poll sheds light on primary electorate: CNN's exit poll has a load of fascinating info.

• 9% of Republican primary voters were Democrats, and Santorum got a majority (not just a plurality) of Dems.
• 39% called themselves moderate or liberal.
• Santorum gets almost half the vote among those who dislike the other candidates more than they like their own candidates.
• Nearly 3 in 8 Republican primary voters say abortion should be "always" or "mostly" legal.
• 44% approved of the government bailing out the automakers.
• Most fascinating of all (IMHO): Romney and Santorum tied among Tea Party supporters, with Santorum winning among those who do not support the Tea Party.

Republicans' irresponsibility comes back to bite them: Michigan republicans wasted $40 million of our tax dollars to hold this primary so they could anoint Romney as the nominee here in Michigan. Well, how's that turning out for you, Republicans? Your party is at war with itself, and now your frontrunner is trailing Obama by 16 points in Michigan.

State House races offer good signs for Democrats: The 29th and 51st State House districts had special elections to fill the remainders of the terms of Tim Melton (D-29th), who resigned, and Paul Scott (R-51st), who was recalled. Both were succeeded by members of their own parties, meaning there will be no change in the balance of power in the State House.

In November 2008 - a great election for Democrats - Paul Scott got 53% of the vote in the 51st House race. This time, with a much more Republican electorate, Joe Graves got a whopping 54%. One should be careful about reading too much into that, but with a much more Republican electorate voting yesterday (60% Republican statewide, according to CNN), do you not think Graves should've done much better than 54%?

Could it be that Michigan Republicans are in for a backlash for their anti-worker agenda?

Hillary ekes out New Hampshire upset; more analysis

With most of the votes in, CNN and other outlets say that Hillary Clinton and John McCain have each won their respective parties' primaries in New Hampshire. Time for me once again to don my pundit cap. (Apparently I look a lot more attractive with a pundit cap than without one.)

In terms of pledged delegates to the Democratic and Republican national conventions, Barack Obama still holds a thinner-than-Wheat-Thins lead of 25-24 over Clinton, with Edwards at 18. Romney has 24 delegates to 18 for Mike Huckabee, 10 for John McCain, 6 for Fred Thompson, 2 for Ron Paul, and 1 for Duncan Hunter. Again, a candidate must win a majority of the convention delegates to win the nomination. More on how delegates are selected later.

If nothing else, Hillary and McCain proved with this primary that they are top-notch contenders and are both very much in it. Big victory for Hillary? Yes. Setback for Obama? Yes. Fluke? We'll find out soon enough.

For Hillary, this win should remind everyone that it's not over yet, despite her disappointing third-place finish in Iowa. Must do well in: Michigan. I mean, there are five choices on the ballot in Tuesday's primary: Clinton; Gravel; Kucinich; Gravel; Dodd; and Uncommitted. Gravel and Kucinich were the bottom finishers in both Iowa and New Hampshire, while Dodd is no longer running. More on Michigan's primary in the next couple days.

For Obama, this could in many respects be considered a disappointment. He was, after all, leading by several points in most polls leading up to the primary. He had a certain amount of momentum that has now been lost. That said, only twice in the last ten elections has a Democrat won every single Democratic primary and caucus, and Obama only lost New Hampshire by two points. Also, as I mentioned, he holds a one-vote lead in the delegate count. If nothing else, this should motivate Obama supporters and remind them not to take things for granted. Oh, and polls aren't always that reliable. Must do well in: South Carolina. Nearly half of South Carolinians who took CNN's exit poll in the 2004 primary were black. Neither New Hampshire nor Iowa can be considered nearly that racially diverse.

Edwards has pulled two disappointing performances in a row. Both Clinton and Obama received twice as many votes as Edwards in New Hampshire. Must do well in: South Carolina, for three reasons. First, he was born in Seneca, SC. Second, he currently lives in North Carolina. Third, he won South Carolina over Kerry in 2004. Should he follow his disappointing showing in the Granite State with another one in the Palmetto State, look for many in the 'Anybody-but-Hillary' crowd to ratchet up the pressure on Edwards to drop out and let said anti-Hillary crowd more or less unite behind Obama.

Richardson has been a much bigger disappointment than Edwards. Richardson took 2% in Iowa and 5% in New Hampshire, failing to win a single delegate to the Convention. Must do well in: Nevada, with its heavy Latino population.

Just a few months ago, McCain was all but counted out. His campaign looked like it was on its deathbed. Yet with a third-place finish in Iowa and a victory in New Hampshire, it appears that (to borrow an expression) rumors of the death of his campaign were greatly exaggerated. Must do well in: Michigan, where it has been a battle between him and Romney from the get-go.

Romney won the barely publicized Wyoming caucus last Saturday and has finished second in the other two states. Despite their second-place finishes, he and Obama each actually lead their National Convention delegate counts. Still he must do well in: Michigan, which his father governed from 1963-1969.

What happened to Huckabee? McCain tripled Huckabee's total in the Granite State, and Romney came close to pulling off the same feat. South Carolina has a higher percentage of evangelical and born-again Christians, and regional favoritism could benefit him. Thus, he must do well in: South Carolina.

Rudy Giuliani edged Ron Paul after finishing behind him in Iowa. Fred Thompson took a dismal 1%. Why is Duncan Hunter still running?

Iowa results - and where we go from here

Here are the near-final Iowa numbers from CNN as of 2:45 AM:

Obama - 38%
Edwards - 30%
Clinton - 29%
Richardson - 2%
Biden - 1%

Biden and Chris Dodd have dropped out.

Huckabee - 34%
Romney - 26%
Thompson - 13%
McCain - 13%
Paul - 10%
Giuliani - 3%
Hunter - 0%

Time for some analysis. By winning, Huckabee and Obama have momentum heading into next Tuesday's New Hampshire primary. The Iowa Democratic caucus was seen as a very close three-way contest amongst Clinton, Edwards, and Obama. The Republican caucus was seen as a toss-up between Huckabee and Romney.

For Obama to win by eight points, therefore, should be considered particularly good news for him. Also good for him is that quite a few more independents - a voting bloc where he did particularly well in Iowa - are expected to vote in New Hampshire. Also, the fact that he won an overwhelmingly white state tells us that, well, his appeal crosses racial lines. If he can follow his win in Iowa with another one in New Hampshire, then he will have high expectations for South Carolina, whose black population is quite high.

Edwards really needed to do well here. Had he finished behind Hillary, I doubt his campaign would've ended, but his organization was said to be lagging behind Hillary and Obama in other states. In other words, unlike Obama and Hillary, most of his chips were down in Iowa, and he needed to do well there to get some mo'. Now he needs to do well in South Carolina, where he was born. That said, his second-place finish couldn't hurt too much; for him to beat Hillary (albeit by a small margin) gives him some momentum.

For Hillary - long considered the front-runner - to finish behind both Obama and Edwards has got to be disappointing. Having said that, she and Obama are the two with the most organized campaigns. She had been leading in several states. Whether she gets any momentum from Michigan - where she is one of four candidates in contention (along with 'Uncommitted') - remains to be seen, since Michigan has lost its delegates because of the fact that holding a primary on January 15 violated Party rules.

Richardson needs to do well somewhere. Preferably Nevada, with its high Latino population. With just 2% in Iowa, his campaign is on the ropes.

Romney has to do well in New Hampshire for two reasons. One, the state he governed, Massachusetts, borders New Hampshire. Two, Iowa has a higher percentage of evangelical and born-again Republican voters than New Hampshire; they are seen as the main reason Huckabee won. If Huckabee can use his Iowa momentum and overcome those obstacles to win New Hampshire, then he is the clear front0-runner heading into the Michigan primary a week later. (Michigan Republicans lost only half of their delegates for scheduling the primary on January 15.) If Romney loses New Hampshire, then he MUST hold off Huckabee here in Michigan, which his father governed during much of the 1960s.

For McCain, Thompson, and Giuliani, it's a fight to stay in the top tier. Ron Paul could yet pull off a surprise, since he seems to be sharing in the momentum. Why Duncan Hunter is still in the race beats me.

You might look at these returns and think, 'well, Obama did great.' I, an Obama supporter, am pleased that he won. But you see, what matters is how many delegates to the Democratic and Republican National Conventions are won by each candidate. Obama holds a narrow lead with 16 Democratic delegates, followed by Clinton at 15 while Edwards has 14. Huckabee leads the Republican delegate count with 17, followed by Romney at 12, McCain and Thompson at 3 apiece, and Paul with 2.

Even more interesting? Both parties require that a candidate gets a majority of the delegate votes at the convention. No candidate has a majority on either side.

Now, here's what's likely to happen. As the primary season continues, a clearer picture will emerge on both sides of the aisle. Seeing writing on the wall, more candidates will follow Biden and Dodd out of the race, meaning less competition for those who are still in it. In 2004 eight Democrats were in the running leading up to the caucuses. Dick Gephardt dropped out after Iowa; Joe Lieberman exited after New Hampshire; Wes Clark's swan song came following voting in Tennessee and Virginia; and Howard Dean's downfall was completed after the Wisconsin primary. After 'Super Tuesday' which was then in March and not February) John Edwards dropped out.

In all likelihood, as candidates drop out they will release their delegates. That is, they will allow the delegates pledged to vote for them to instead vote for someone else. In 2004, for example, many of the candidates received delegates, but only Kerry won a majority of the delegates. The other candidates released their delegates, allowing them to vote for Kerry at the convention and providing a near-unanimous vote for Kerry.

So there you have it. Obama and Huckabee are by no means assured of their nominations. But they are the front-runners and they do have that all-important momentum heading into the rest of the primary season.

Mitt Romney is desperate

Clearly Mitt Romney has little else on which to campaign, so he feels he has to hold up a woman's sign bashing Chelsea Clinton and comparing one of America's most popular politicians to a terrorist.

And by the way, what does that woman not like about the Museum of Modern Art (MOMA)? Heck, I didn't even know Chelsea had a Museum of Modern Art!

Bits of Tid: July 18, 2007

• With deep sadness, we mourn the passing of Jim Gilmore's campaign. RIP, Gilmore campaign. We will miss you as much as we will miss Dubya when he leaves office.
  
  Now riddle me this: Jim Gilmore was a governor for four years, Mike Huckabee, for ten years, and Tommy Thompson was a governor for 14 years. Why is the press not giving as much attention to those three combined as they are to Mitt?
  
• Well, at least Romney never got a $400 haircut. But did get the next best (?) thing.
  
• Mom and I enjoy listening to the radio program Wait, Wait, Don't Tell Me each Saturday on NPR. This Saturday's program, however, is going to be better than most.
  
• Hypocrisy anyone?
  
• State Supreme Court Chief ‘Justice’ Clifford Taylor has dealt with controversy surrounding his state-owned car, which he admitted to using for personal reasons. Now the MDP is buying that car:

“This car will be a continuing symbol of Taylor’s misuse of taxpayer money as we travel the state in it to campaign against his re-election. We also look forward to searching through the car to see what we can find.

Goody gumdrops!

• Congratulations, Congressman Conyers!


• Last year, WMU's president was fired. This week, Eastern's Board of Regents ousted their president and two others over the handling of the death of a student. Hopefully such msifortune will not befall CMU's Michael Rao.


• And finally, won't you vote for one of my pictures? The second Hardiman one is in a three-way deadlock with the two I didn't submit.

Bits of Tid: May 12, 2007

In 13,000 hours we should have a president-elect.

• It's time to de-authorize the war, say Biden, Richardson, and Clinton.
• Some big names are backing Chris Dodd's energy plan.
• The governors of Maryland and New Jersey are endorsing Hillary.
• Edwards is proposing an $8 billion program to make college more affordable. A drop in the bucket compared to the $425.1 billion price tag for the war.
• On the other side, Rudy Giuliani and Ann Romney (Mitt's wife) have both donated to Planned Parenthood. And you thought Rudy was the only pro-choice Republican out there?
• State Senators Alan Cropsey (who 'represents' Mount Pleasant) and Bill Hardiman (ex-mayor of my hometown of Kentwood) have each been featured recently in Michigan Liberal's Better Know an Obstriutionist series. (Don't forget to let your state legislators know your thoughts onm the state budget!)
• I don't care about the whole Paris Hilton thing, so shut up, media.

Double dose of bad news for McCain

First there's this:

For the first time, favorite son Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) "no longer has a double digit lead as the top choice for President among Arizona Republicans," according to a new Rocky Mountain Poll.

Rudy Guiliani is now within nine points of Senator McCain and has "made major gains in just the past two months. As of this week, McCain leads Guiliani by only 34 to 25 percent, but more important is the dynamic surge in Guiliani’s appeal rising to 25 percent from only 13 percent in January while McCain sank from 40 percent to only 34 percent."

"The surge in support for Guiliani seems to be fueled by retired Republicans and Republicans most likely to vote in a primary election. Among retirees, Guiliani leads McCain by 36 to 21 percent and among likely voters who call themselves Republicans, Guiliani leads McCain by a 32 to 21 percent margin."

It's bad enough when (1) only 1/3 of the Republicans who know you best - those in your own home state which you've represented in the Senate for two decades - support your campaign and (2) you're losing ground to the 'pro-abortion' Rudy. But then comes this:

Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) "said his presidential campaign would not meet its fundraising goals this quarter, and his campaign advisers acknowledged that" former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney (R) "may wind up raising more," according to The Hotline.

"Some Republicans estimate that Romney, whose network of friends, business contacts and party donors is expansive, could accumulate more than $30 or even $35 million this quarter. McCain is not likely to raise in excess of $30M, according to Republicans outside his campaign who have been given the unofficial estimate." The deadline for campaigns to report their earnings to the FEC is March 31.

Wow Mr. McCain, your fellow Republicans are starting to like a 'baby-killer' and your fellow flip-flopper (who used to be a 'baby-killer' when it was convenient) more than they like you. I guess that's not surprising given that you were actually in Vietnam, and your party's attacks on 'Nam vets Kerry and Cleland show that that's a big no-no in their book.

Presidential Bits of Tid: March 9, 2007

Sorry it's been a few days.

• Newt Gingrich admits he had an affair while he was pushing the impeachment of Bill Clinton.
  
• New York’s firefighters union stings “9/11 candidate” Rudy Giuliani.
  
• It’s early, but here are some poll numbers from the American Research Group. Both nationally and in Michigan, Hillary has a slight lead over Obama, with Edwards in third. Giuliani leads McCain among Republicans by a small margin, with Romney taking just 7% nationally and, perhaps more telling, only 10% in his father’s home state.
  
• All eyes will be on Chuck Hagel Monday. Prediction: He won’t run for president, but is instead going to announce his retirement from the Senate. His term ends in 2008.

McCain challenges Romney for flip-flop supremacy

Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney - son of former Michigan Governor George Romney and brother of MSU Trustee Scott Romney - is trying to brand himself as the right choice for conservative Republicans. Which is surprising, given his many flip-flops on issues such as abortion, gay marriage, and taxes.

Michigan Democratic Party Chair Mark Brewer slammed Romney in a press release as Romney prepared to declare his candidacy in Michigan:

"Today, the prodigal son returns. Throughout his entire career Mitt Romney has done nothing for Michigan, a state he abandoned decades ago. Romney is only announcing in Michigan because he is so unpopular in Massachusetts. Just like his flip-flops on abortion and gay rights, he is only coming back to Michigan because of a calculated political decision,” Brewer said. “Michigan’s voters are too smart for his cynical politics. They do not want a Bush clone on the escalation of Iraq. Michigan voters do not want a person who will support the same failed Bush policies of outsourcing and unfair trade that have severely hurt Michigan’s manufacturing jobs.”

Which isn't to say Romney isn't a genuine conservative; as Brewer said, he does support President Bush's plan to escalate the war by sending more troops to Iraq, as does John McCain.

McCain, however, appears to want to challenge Romney' flip-flop superiority:

McCain, until recently, was pushing for a reform law that would require conservative groups to reveal their financial donors. But, after fielding protests from evangelical Christians and antiabortion activists, McCain decided last month to strip out the provision.

McCain in 2000 assailed Bush's proposed tax cuts as a sop to the rich, and a year later, with Bush in office, he voted against those cuts, declaring that "the benefits go to the most fortunate among us, at the expense of middle-class Americans." But a year ago, he switched sides and voted to extend tax cuts for the wealthy.

McCain in 1999 said that, "even in the long term," he would not support the repeal of Roe v. Wade because "thousands of young American women would be performing illegal and dangerous operations." But last November he said that he now favored repeal because "I don't believe the Supreme Court should be legislating in the way that they did on Roe v. Wade."

...

McCain in 2006 suggested that creationism was not a fit topic for the schoolroom: "I respect those who think the world was created in seven days. Should it be taught as a science class? Probably not." But he suggested the opposite in 2005 ("all points of view should be presented"), and next Friday he is scheduled to be the keynote speaker at a confab sponsored by the Discovery Institute, a prominent creationism advocacy group.

For all the GOP's talk in 2004 about the need for "unwavering leadership," Mitt Romney and John McCain sure like to waver.

Bits of Tid: February 10, 2007

633 days from the 2008 election! (BTW: I haven't received a reply to any of my posts in several weeks!! I feel lonely when no one replies!)

• I went to the Kent County Spring Democratic Convention today. Kinda light turnout; only 60- or so people, compared to the 200 or so people at the one in August (granted, that was just before the last election). The high point was getting a warm reception after discussing Eye On Ehlers. I posted a blurb about that on Daily Kos.
  
  
• The 2006 State of the State was Tuesday. As usual, another great speech by our Governor, as she did her best to outline the crisis Michigan faces, and how we can get out of it. I'm especially glad she discussed the importance of taxes, and how cutting them doesn't help the economy as much as some would have you think. If you didn't get a chance to see the address, read the transcript or watch the video.
  
  
• The Guv has proposed a 2% tax on services (excluding healthcare and education-related services). Look for my thoughts on that later.
  
  
• Barack Obama has officially joined the race. I like him. More thoughts on that later. Also, Mitt Romney came to town for the state GOP Convention. More on Mitt's flip-flops later.
  
  
• Congressman John Murtha (D-PA) - known for his strong opposition to the Iraq War - wants the Guantanamo prison closed.
  
  
• The head of the Michigan Young Republicans has been charged with rape. I donb't care who you are or which party you support... rape is absolutely inexcusable. Then again, he is innocent until proven guilty.

A first look at Election 2008

For the first time since 1952, neither the incumbent President nor the incumbent VP will be a nominee for the White House. After Dick Cheney announced early in his Vice Presidency that he wouldn't run for President, many analysts have predicted that the 2008 White House race was as open as it has been in a while. In other words, it is hard to tell who could be the 44th President (as opposed to 2000, when Gore and Bush were the favorited to become their parties' nominees).

So who's running? Who's not? Who's on the fence? (Asterisk denotes those who have run for president in the past; two asterisks mean they have run for President twice)

Who's in?

The following candidates have announced their candidacies for President or have filed to form what is called an exploratory committee: (Asterisk denotes those who have run for president in the past)

Sen. Joe Biden (D-DE)*
Fmr. Sen. John Edwards (D-NC)*
Fmr. Sen. Mike Gravel (D-AK)
Rep. Dennis Kucinich (D-OH)*
Gov. Bill Richardson (D-NM)
Outgoing Gov. Tom Vilsack (D-IA)
Fmr. Gov. Jim Gilmore (R-VA)
Fmr. Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R-NY)
Sen. Sam Brownback (R-KS)
Rep. Duncan Hunter (R-CA)
Sen. John McCain (R-AZ)*
Outgoing Gov. Mitt Romney (R-MA)
Fmr. HHS Sec. Tommy Thompson (R-WI)

Who's Out?

The following people have said they will not run for President in 2008.

Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN)
Fmr. Sen. Tom Daschle (D-SD)
Fmr. Gov. Howard Dean (D-VT)*
Sen. Russ Feingold (D-WI)
Fmr. VP. Al Gore (D-TN)**
Fmr. Gov. Mark Warner (D-VA)
Gov. Haley Barbour (R-MS)
Outgoing Gov. Jeb Bush (R-FL)
Outgoing Sen. Bill Frist (R-TN)
Sec. of State Condoleezza Rice (R-CA)
Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R-MN)
Gov. Mark Sanford (R-SC)

Who's on the fence? (And I don't mean the miles-long fence along the Mexican Border)

The following people may or may not run in 2008.

Gen. Wesley Clark (Ret.), US Army (D-AR)* - Prediction: Will run.
Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-NY) - Prediction: Will not run. (You heard it here first.)
Sen. John Kerry (D-MA)* - Prediction: Will run.
Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) - Prediction: Will not run.
Fmr. Rep. Newt Gingrich (R-GA) - Prediction: Will run.
Sen. Chuck Hagel (R-NE) - Prediction: Will run.