Election 2006 Predictions

These predictions are mine and mine alone. Percentages often do NOT add up to 100% to account for third party performance.

Governor/Lieutenant Governor: Jenny is peaking at just the right time. Unlike the last two Dem governors (Swainson in 1962, Blanchard in 1990), Jenny won't lose for re-election.
Granholm/Cherry* 51%
DeVos/Johnson 47%

Secretary of State:
Land* 58%
Sabaugh 41%

Attorney General:
Cox* 53%
Williams 46%

US Senate: Didn't expect this one to bbe within reach. That said, I don't want to be too optimistic.
50 Republicans
49 Democrats

Stabenow* (D) 55%
Bouchard 44%

US House: A lot of people say they expect Democrats to win control of the House. Even Bill Ballenger predicted Dems would hold a 220-215 advantage! I've convinced myself that it won't happen. That way, if it doesn't, I won't be disappointed. But now I'll say it: I predict Speaker Pelosi come January.
Democrats: 219
Republicans: 216

MI-3: Rinck has name recognition, which is unusual for Ehler's oppoonent. Plus, it's a bad year for Repubs, so he won't do as well as usual. (He usually gets 67% or better.
Ehlers* 61%
Rinck 38%

MI-4: More people know Huck in '06 than in '04... but they still like Camp!
Camp* 58%
Huckleberry 41%

State House:
56 Democrats
54 Republicans

District 72 (Kentwood, Cascade, Caledonia): I'm stuck with Prop 2 supporter and minimum wage opponent Steil for another two years.
Steil* 78%
Hinton 20%

District 75 (part of G.R.): This is an open seat, where the Dem challenger got 48% in '04 after barely campaigning.
Dean 52%
Doyle 48%

District 99 (Isabella + part of Midland): Putting it mildly, Partlo is a disaster. ICDP endorsee and 20-something Eric Welsby would break 40% if he had won the nomination. (He lost in the primary by 61 votes.)
Caul* 64%
Partlo 36%

State Senate:
19 Democrats, plus Lt. Gov. Cherry's tie-breaking vote
19 Republicans

District 29 (Grand Rapids, Kentwood): This district is split in terms of party lines. Six months ago, I would've said that Hardiman was a loock for re-election, getting around 60-65% of the vote. But LaGrand has surprised me. I predict it will be close, with the popular Hardiman edging out the also-popular LaGrand.
Hardiman* 49.7%
LaGrand 49.1%

District 33 (Isabella, Montcalm, Ionia, Clinton):
Cropsey* 59%
White 41%

The following races are listed in terms of what order each major candidate will finish in. Top two get elected.

State Board of Education: The 5-3 Dem majority remains.
1. Eileen Weiser*
2. Reginald Turner*
3. Tom McMillin
4. Casandra Ulbrich

U-M Regents: 5-3 Dems here too. Again, no change.
1. David Brandon*
2. Kathy White*
3. Julia Darlow
4. Susan Brown

MSU Trustees: For any candidate, name recognition is important. This is especially true here, and that will help Perles more than his actions at MSU will hurt him. The GOP holds a 5-3 majority. Look for an even 4-4 split now.
1. George Perles
2. Dave Porteous*
3. Dee Cook*
4. Faylene Owen

WSU Governors: Currently it's 6-2 Dems over GOP. One of the two Repubs is calling it quits, and Debbie Dingell has a lot of name recognoition for a candidate on this part of the ballot. Can you say 7-1?
1. Debbie Dingell
2. Eugene Driker*
3. Andrew McLemore
4. John Akouri

Supreme Court: When's the last time an incumbent justice lost for re-election?
Michael Cavanagh*
Maura Corrigan*
Jane Beckering
Marc Shulman

Kent County Drain Commissioner:
Byl 58%
McKay 42%

17th Circuit Court: Many judges, plus the Grand Rapids Press, are endorsing Trusock, but the all-powerful Right to Life is endorsing Brinkman. I smell a recount.
Brinkman 50.2%
Trusock 49.8%

Ballot proposals (in tems of what percentage of voters vote yes):
Proposal 1 (Conservation Trust Fund): 61% vote yes
Proposal 2 (Affirmative action ban): 46%
Proposal 3 (Allowing mourning dove hunting): 41%
Proposal 4 (Emnent domain): 64%
Proposal 5 (Education funding): 41%
So Props 1 and 4 pass, while 2, 3, and 5 are going down.

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