Cue the Buyer's Remorse: Bernero would likely beat Snyder today

So says Public Policy Polling. The press release is in PDF form and it won't let me copy and paste, but here are a few highlights:

• Of poll respondents who didn't vote, Bernero leads 37-32%
• 47% would back Bernero, 45% would back Snyder
• Snyder's approval rating is 33% (with 50% disapproval)
• Collective bargaining rights are favored 59-32%; a constitutional amendment to ensure these rights would be backed by 49-37%
• Snyder's EFM power grab is opposed 50-32%

What does this tell us?

• Now that people know who Snyder is and what he stands for, they don't like him. No surprise.
• People have said that turnout was a big factor in the disastrous results. Well, this shows that it was. It also shows that with better turnout, Bernero wouldn't have had to persuade that many independents and others to vote for him in order for him to win.
• We didn't have to lose the 2010 election. The only reasons we did were because of bad turnout and the lack of funds needed to define the campaign on OUR terms, as opposed to their terms. (Hiring more paid staffers would've helped too, had we had the $$.)

That last point is important because it speaks to an issue I've noticed among many Democrats in recent months: The lack of a 'Yes We Can' attitude toward getting things done. I heard someone say as early as May 2009 that we wouldn't win the governorship. That attitude prevailed throughout the entire campaign, despite the fact that Michigan is a Democratic-leaning state. The reality is, if more people realized that we could have won... we might've won. People were happy to jump on board the campaign of Barack "Yes We Can" Obama, but who would want to volunteer for a campaign that they thought would be impossible to win? And more importantly, why did so many Democrats feed that mindset?

Another example: There was a mindset being pushed by many of the House Democrats that said, "Hey look, we're not going to win the State Senate, so support us instead." I asked a House Dem operative to elaborate on why he thought we wouldn't win the Senate, and all he could say was, "The numbers just aren't there." Turns out, the numbers WERE there. Had we kept the Senate seats we lost, we could've won back the Senate with LaGrand, Hopewell, Valentine, and Law. And with better turnout, we would have won the Senate. Instead, thanks to a fragmented campaign, the other side ended up with a 63-47 majority in the House when many people thought it impossible for Republicans to even get 56 seats. What a damn shame.

Yet another example: There is a YouTube video that was very popular among many of my Facebook friends and that was shared very widely, called "Michigan is screwed." That video was of a Rachel Maddow segment about the EFM bill. MSNBC had their own video of that segment, but the title didn't allude to us being 'screwed.' Someone I hadn't heard from in a LONG time posted the "Michigan is screwed" video on my FB wall, and before long I found the video on quite a few of my friends' FB pages.

I was even invited to an 'event' called "Michigan is F**ked." Yeah, really.

I could go on, but all I'll add is that what's going on now would not be going on if Democrats had done better in November. And Democrats would have done better if more of us had a better mindset - a mindset of doing what it takes to win, rather than a mindset of tearing down fellow Democrats and conceding an election long before it even takes place. But I mention all of this because the 2010 election has many lessons to offer us, and it is critical that these lessons be learned.

Bits of Tid: August 6, 2010

21 more weeks until Governor Bernero's inauguration!

• Who's gonna be the next Lieutenant Governor? My favorite at the moment: Buzz Thomas. He has been a leader in the Legislature and has worked with more than a few of the lawmakers an LG is often expected to work with. But then, there are other good choices, including progressive favorite Alma Wheeler Smith. Had soon-to-be County Commissioner Ray Basham (author of the minimum-wage and smoking laws) or future Congressman Hansen Clarke (who has quite a rags-to-riches story to tell and is a genuinely wonderful public servant) lost their nomination bids Tuesday, I would've suggested either one of them.
• Now, if Rick "Politicians got us into this mess" Snyder picks a politician to be his second banana, that might make him look like a hypocrite - thus solidifying his suppoort among the far 'right.' Perhaps it will be Cassis? Birkholz? Even Cox or Hoekstra to unify the Party of Palin? Heck, maybe Terri Lynn Land or Ruth Johnson - they know what it's like to be a running mate on a losing ticket. Actually I'm thinking he might pick McManus to throw open the race for Secretary of State (I remember Posthumus doing the opposite and picking Loren Bennett to unite the party behind Land for SOS in 2002). But again, to not look like a hypocrite he ought to pick someopne other than a politician - like Dick DeVos!
• I tell you, it's an anti-incumbent, anti-politician year! Anyone else notice how many incumbents lost their renomination bids on Tuesday? Like, for example, um... uh... let me think here... Wait, the only two I know of are Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick and Kent County Commissioner Jim Vaughn, the latter having been convicted of a crime and the former having been Kwame's mother. And 100% of Democratic primary voters (not including write-ins) and 63% of Republican primary voters voted for a politician for governor, while politicians Bill Huizenga and Justin Amash won congressional primaries in which most Republican primary voters voted for, well, politicians (like Wayne Kuipers and Bill Hardiman). Upton, Kildee, Levin - all won convincingly as well.
• Andy Dillon isn't quite endorsing Bernero yet. Here in West Michigan, the so-called 'liberal' media is making a big deal of this; which is no surprise, given how much they like to push the 'Democrats in disarray' meme without highlighting divisions within the Party of Palin. At any rate, I highly doubt that a lack of a Dillon endorsement would hurt Bernero that much (at least not enough to cost him the election).
• Keep in mind that hardly anyone has a negative view of Snyder right now. When people learn about who he really is and what he's done, don't be surprised if people start liking Virg more and more (or at least becoming disenchanted with Snyder).
• Tell me again how coming off as angry is supposed to hurt a candidate at a time when people are themselves angry?
• Hey newly (re-)elected precinct delegates! Is there an issue about which you are dying to get your voice heard? Start writing your resolutions now for consideration at your County and District Democratic Conventions so that they will benoticed by those who write the State Party Platform! I plan on writing one for net neutrality, for instance.

Bits of Tid: June 29, 2010

• The 2nd quarter of fundraising ends at 11:59:59 tomorrow - don't forget to make a small contribution to your favorite candidates!
• Rachel, how do I love thee?
  
  Of course, we learned today that the financial reform bill has had a couple of setbacks. But still, they say it is more likely than not to pass. And with Elena Kagan likely to join Sonia Sotomayor on the Supreme Court, the enormity of Obama's impact on our government is just now becoming apparent.
• "Michigan NOW likes Virg," declares a headline from the Detroit News. Of course, they speak of the National Organization for Women:
  

• Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero continues to rake in endorsements from traditional Democratic Party constituencies.

  Which goes to show who has more support from involved grassroots Democrats. At any rate, the article continues:
  

  But it remains to be seen whether the endorsements translate into campaign cash. Bernero has yet to run any TV ads, while his opponent in the Democratic primary, House Speaker Andy Dillon, on Monday launched his second spot.

  Ah, yes - reminders of how Dick DeVos got on the air early and was easily elected over Granholm. Oh wait - didn't happen like that, did it?
• More reason to like Daily Kos: Time Magazine thinks it's "overrated." Kind of reminds me of when Carl Levin was talking about the Washington Post attacking him - he said that was "a badge of honor. I never made Nixon's Enemies list, and I wanted to make up for it ever since."
• I'll have some thoughts on Robert Byrd in a few days.

Democrats still in solid contention for governor's race

Or at least that's what Rasmussen says.

Before I say anything else, let me state that I'm hardly a fan of polls. After all, only two of them will matter: The one taken on August 3, and the one taken on November 2.

But if even rRasmussen says the Democratic candidates are not trailing the Republicans by very much at this point, I do believe there is something that we ought to take from this polling.

It ain't over yet.

Numbers:

MI-Gov: Rick Snyder (R) 42%, Virg Bernero (D) 30%
MI-Gov: Mike Cox (R) 40%, Virg Bernero (D) 34%
MI-Gov: Peter Hoekstra (R) 39%, Virg Bernero (D) 36%
MI-Gov: Rick Snyder (R) 41%, Andy Dillon (D) 33%
MI-Gov: Mike Cox (R) 39%, Andy Dillon (D) 37%
MI-Gov: Peter Hoekstra (R) 40%, Andy Dillon (D) 35%

It's safe to say Dillon and Bernero don't have as much name recognition as Cox, Hoekstra, or Snyder. On that alone, they should be doing a lot worse in these head-to-head matchups.

Notice, also, that the Republicans are also polling significantly under the all-important 50%. They also do so in other polls. Normally that's not a good sign for an incumbent to be under 50%, I would also argue that given their name recognition, this is not good And for much the same reason: Just as voters usually know a thing or two about an incumbent, they should also know a thing or two about these three Republicans.

So why am I mentioning all of this? After all, I just said that I'm not a fan of polls!

Well, what it says is that this election is not over yet. When people know more about Virg and/or Andy, one can reasonably expect that their numbers will rise. Right now it's"the devil you kind of know or at least have heard about" versus "the devil you don't know." When it's "two devils you kind of know or at least have heard about," our "devils" will fare better.

Gone are the days of many Democrats fearing that the governor's race was all but lost. Instead, the focus in Democratic circles seems to be upon the candidates themselves.

Speaking of polls, I read somewhere that 70% of Michigan Republicans say they are more excited about voting in 2010 than they were in 2008. Meanwhile, "only" 42% of Democrats feel that way. Kind of surprising that a full 42% on our side say they are actually more eager to vote this year than in the Year of Hope, Change, and a 15-point win for Obama in Michigan. (Don't tell the Press, which considered that "grim" news for Democrats.)

Bernero: "Being a good leader starts with being a good person"

Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero, one of our Democratic candidates for Governor, came to CMU to speak to students and to answer our questions. While I won't pretend that I'm 100% behind Virg, Alma, or Andy, I will say that now I know why so many others are supporting the Mayor!

Unsurprisingly, Virg talked mostly about economic issues. He discussed, among other things, his proposal for a state bank; our need for better trade policy; the importance of manufacturing; unions; Wall Street's refusal to invest in Michigan; the tendency of some to blame the workers for our economic problems; and so much more.

Virg also talked about his record in Lansing - including how he was able to get the budget done on time, without laying off a single person.

Beyond economic policy, Virg is also a supporter of the new healthcare reform law, though he (like many of us, myself included) doesn't think it's perfect. He also supports a woman's right to choose, though he only talked briefly about it, saying that as a man, he doesn't make decisions about abortion.

In terms of economics, I'm not sure I've ever (or at least lately) heard anyone in politics sound so wonk-ish and nerdy as Virg Bernero. (Especially not Snyder!) And yet he comes off like a regular guy someone smart enough and easygoing enough to relate to people and understand what our state needs.

While I don't know for sure who I will support on August 3, Virg Bernero has made a very solid impression on me.