Cue the Buyer's Remorse: Bernero would likely beat Snyder today

So says Public Policy Polling. The press release is in PDF form and it won't let me copy and paste, but here are a few highlights:

• Of poll respondents who didn't vote, Bernero leads 37-32%
• 47% would back Bernero, 45% would back Snyder
• Snyder's approval rating is 33% (with 50% disapproval)
• Collective bargaining rights are favored 59-32%; a constitutional amendment to ensure these rights would be backed by 49-37%
• Snyder's EFM power grab is opposed 50-32%

What does this tell us?

• Now that people know who Snyder is and what he stands for, they don't like him. No surprise.
• People have said that turnout was a big factor in the disastrous results. Well, this shows that it was. It also shows that with better turnout, Bernero wouldn't have had to persuade that many independents and others to vote for him in order for him to win.
• We didn't have to lose the 2010 election. The only reasons we did were because of bad turnout and the lack of funds needed to define the campaign on OUR terms, as opposed to their terms. (Hiring more paid staffers would've helped too, had we had the $$.)

That last point is important because it speaks to an issue I've noticed among many Democrats in recent months: The lack of a 'Yes We Can' attitude toward getting things done. I heard someone say as early as May 2009 that we wouldn't win the governorship. That attitude prevailed throughout the entire campaign, despite the fact that Michigan is a Democratic-leaning state. The reality is, if more people realized that we could have won... we might've won. People were happy to jump on board the campaign of Barack "Yes We Can" Obama, but who would want to volunteer for a campaign that they thought would be impossible to win? And more importantly, why did so many Democrats feed that mindset?

Another example: There was a mindset being pushed by many of the House Democrats that said, "Hey look, we're not going to win the State Senate, so support us instead." I asked a House Dem operative to elaborate on why he thought we wouldn't win the Senate, and all he could say was, "The numbers just aren't there." Turns out, the numbers WERE there. Had we kept the Senate seats we lost, we could've won back the Senate with LaGrand, Hopewell, Valentine, and Law. And with better turnout, we would have won the Senate. Instead, thanks to a fragmented campaign, the other side ended up with a 63-47 majority in the House when many people thought it impossible for Republicans to even get 56 seats. What a damn shame.

Yet another example: There is a YouTube video that was very popular among many of my Facebook friends and that was shared very widely, called "Michigan is screwed." That video was of a Rachel Maddow segment about the EFM bill. MSNBC had their own video of that segment, but the title didn't allude to us being 'screwed.' Someone I hadn't heard from in a LONG time posted the "Michigan is screwed" video on my FB wall, and before long I found the video on quite a few of my friends' FB pages.

I was even invited to an 'event' called "Michigan is F**ked." Yeah, really.

I could go on, but all I'll add is that what's going on now would not be going on if Democrats had done better in November. And Democrats would have done better if more of us had a better mindset - a mindset of doing what it takes to win, rather than a mindset of tearing down fellow Democrats and conceding an election long before it even takes place. But I mention all of this because the 2010 election has many lessons to offer us, and it is critical that these lessons be learned.

Bloodbath post-mortem

This has been The. Worst. Election. Of. My. Lifetime. Worse than 1994. Much worse than 2002 or 2004. I didn't think it would be this bad. I truly believed that more of the first-time voters from 2008 would show up again. Sadly, this 'enthusiasm gap' was all too real. Damn shame.

• Davis becomes the third incumbent Justice in Michigan history to lose re-election. It now appears that incumbency does not carry with it the same advantages that it did just four years ago.
• Republicans swept the statewide education board spots for the first time since 1984. (Dems swept them in 1986, 2006, and 2008, while 1988-2004 each side won some seats).
• Even Colleen McNamara - who won her seat on the MSU Board in 1994 of all years - has lost.
• Their 21-seat gain in the state House is the biggest for any party since... actually, I don't even have a clue when.
• There will be more Republicans in the State House and the State Senate than at any time in at least 20 years (and probably much longer).
• This marks the first time since 1994 that Democrats have not been able to flip a single US Senate seat from red to blue.
• There will be more Republicans in the House than at any time since Truman's first term (when my parents were not even a year old).
• Democrats have held at least one of the top four statewide offices (Governor, LG, Secretary of State, AG) since after the 1948 election. Not anymore.

As for why this all happened, it can all be summed up in three words: Turnout, turnout, turnout. Of course, there are a myriad of factors that go beyond turnout, but let me just say that turnout was horrible where I lived. It was 48% in Kent County, vs. 60% in 2006 and 53% in 2002.

And most of the drop-off is from Dems staying home. Republicans didn't getting many more votes than they usually do. For all this talk about how Snyder apoparently appeals to moderates, indies, and Dems, he's only getting about a quarter million more votes than conservative hero DeVos. Eileen Weiser didn't get many more votes in her election to the State Board of Education than she did four years ago.

My read on the election is that it wasn't about Republicans being more energized than before, though that was a bit of a factor. It wasn't about independents and others changing their minds and voting for Republicans two/four/six years after voting for Democrats, though a few probably did. It was about too many Democrats not voting, period.

Too many Democrats/Obama supporters have become cynical about the process. "Where's my change I voted for?" they wonder, and they see no reason to vote - so they decide not to.

It really comes down to that age-old problem Democrats have had: Messaging. Republicans kept consistently hammering home the message of lower taxes, less spending, less government, and more jobs. And while my belief is that 'less spending' and 'more jobs' are two ideas that conflict with each other, we all know that it doesn't really matter in the minds of John and Jane Voter.

There's lots and lots and lots of blame to go around. Certainly the President himself is partly responsible, but I'm more apt to blame certain people in his administration for not showing him a better way (since a President is VERY busy and can't do it by himself). Rahm's departure last month was a start.

You know what they say: Lower turnout favors Republicans. And "bad politicians are elected by good citizens who don't vote." That's what happened here.

There are still more of us than there are of them, but too many of us stayed home. Hence, this bloodbath. I believe we will look back at this election as a 'low water mark,' if you will. I don't think we will have a worse election than this for many years/decades. Hopefully we can learn from this, figure out what to do next, and do our best to swing the pendulum back our way.

Predictions

• Snyder 55%, Bernero 41%.
• Benson 51%, Johnson 46%.
• Schuette 53%, Leyton 45%.
• Democrats maintain US Senate majority, 53-47.
• Republicans win control of US House, 222-213.
• Republicans maintain State Senate majority, 21-17.
• Democrats maintain State House majority, 59-51 (net loss of 8).
• Unfortunately, I predict that Young and Kelly will win the Supreme Court seats.
• Proposal 1 is defeated, 37-63%.
• Proposal 2 passes, 71-29%.
• In US Senate races, of Colorado, Illinois, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Washington, and Wisconsin, Democrats will win 4 of those 6.
• Democrats will win 3 of the 4 hotly contested House races in Michigan - in the 1st, 3rd, 7th, and 9th districts.
• Either Florida or Minnesota will be subjected to another recount this time, in their Governor's race.
• Turnout in Michigan: 49%.

Small Margins, Big Impact: Why GOTV Matters

17,595. 5,708. 5,200. 4,963. 3,800. 2,074. 1,154. 1,149. 720. 537. 450. 323. 312. 133. 128. 121. 91. 87. 28. 21. 15. 4. 2. 1.

Giant IP address? Nope. All of those numbers are margins of victory in some of the closest elections Michigan and America have seen in recent years. Many of those close races have had significant consequences:

• 17,595: John Engler (R) over Jim Blanchard (D), Governor of Michigan, 1990. Do we need to go over the consequences of this one?
• 5,708: Ruth Johnson (R) over Sheila Smith (D), Oakland County Clerk, 2008. And guess what Johnson is doing now? Running for office for the 12th consecutive even-year election. Would Republicans have nominated her for Secretary of State had she lost? And polls show her slightly ahead of Jocelyn Benson (by margins similar to Bill Schuette's lead in the AG race) - would Benson be leading the Republican nominee if it wasn't Johnson?
• 5,200: Mike Cox (R) over Gary Peters (D), Michigan Attorney General, 2002. Cox's 8 years as AG have led to a severe downgrading of the role of Attorney General as protector of consumers and individual rights.
• 4,963. Nancy Danhof (R) over Herbert Moyer (D), State Board of Education, 2004. Two candidates are elected each even-numbered year in State Board of Education races; winners serve 8-year terms. In 2004, Danhof came in 2nd, Moyer 3rd. This means that Democrats now have a 6-2 lead in the State Board instead of a 7-1 lead - and it also means we will not have an 8-0 sweep after the election. (If you think the SBE race isn't important, let me remind you of the Texas curriculum rewrite.)
• 3,800: Woodrow Wilson (D) over Charles Evans Hughes (R), President (California - 13 electoral votes), 1916. Had Hughes won California, he would have scored a 267-264 victory in the Electoral College. Instead, in his second term, Wilson led America to victory in World War I and won the Nobel Peace Prize.
• 2,074: John McCulloch (R) over Brett Nicholson (D), Oakland County Drain Commissioner, 2008. We came that close to electing a great young Democrat to countywide office in Oakland County.
• 1,154: G. Mennen Williams (D) over Harry Kelly (R), Governor of Michigan, 1950. After beating ex-Governor Kelly by such a small margin, Williams won his third term by beating Frederick Alger in 1952 by 8,618 votes. He was one of the more popular Governors Michigan has had.
• 1,149: Grover Cleveland (D) over James G. Blaine (R), President (New York - 36 electoral votes), 1884. New York helped Cleveland to an electoral-vote voctory of 219-182 over Blaine; had Blaine won New York, Blaine would have been elected with a 218-183 margin.
• 720: John Pappageorge (R) over Andrew Levin, Michigan State Senator, 2006.
• 537: George W. Bush (R) over Al Gore (D), President (Florida - 25 electoral votes), 2000. Again, let's not rehash the consequences. (Incidentally, this is the number of votes by which Bush was declared the winner. As to who really won... I have my suspicions.
• 450: Roger Kahn (R) over Carl Williams (D), Michigan State Senator, 2006. Had both Williams and Levin won, the Democrats would have controlled the state Senate with Lt. Gov. John Cherry's tiebreaking vote. Republican control of the Senate (while Dems haev controled the Governorship and House of Representatives) resulted in two state government shutdowns in the following three years.
• 323: Bob McDonnell (R) over Creigh Deeds (D), Virginia Attorney General, 2005. McDonnell defeated Deeds by a larger margin in the 2009 race for Governor, likely due in part to his increased name recognition that resulted from his time as AG.
• 312: Al Franken (D) over Norm Coleman (R), US Senator from Minnesota. The period from when Franken was seated in July 2009 to the election of Cosmo Brown the following January (I refuse to let him sully such a good name as Scott) was remarkable in that that's when the healthcare reform package cleared the 60-vote hurdle. It later passed by reconciliation in March, two months after Brown was elected.
• 133: Christine Gregoire (D) over Dino Rossi (R), Governor of Washington, 2004. Gregoire is still Governor, while Rossi is now running for Senate against Patty Murray. Murray is the slight favorite at the moment; would she still be ahead if Rossi had won that race six years ago?)
• 128: Shelley Goodman Taub (R) over Karen Spector (D), Oakland County Commissioner, 2008. Because of this, Republicans hold a 13-12 majority on the Oakland County Commission.
• 121: Mike Rogers (R) over Dianne Byrum (D), US Representative from Michigan, 2000.
• 91: Karl Rolvaag (D) over Elmer Anderson (R), Governor of Minnesota, 1962. This election was finally settled the following March.
• 87: Lyndon Johnson over Coke Stevenson, US Senate Democratic Primary in Texas, 1948. Johnson became an accomplished legislative leader before serving as Vice President and President.
• 28: Barbara McIlvaine Smith (D) over Shannon Royer (R), Pennsylvania state representative, 2006. This gave Democrats a 102-101 majority in the State House. Yes, it was that close.
• 21: Sam Gejdensen over Edward Munster (R), US Representative from Connecticut, 1994.
• 15: Dan Benishek over Jason Allen, Republican US House primary, 2010. The general-election matchup between Benishek and Gary McDowell (D) is seen as a tossup in a district currently represented by retiring Rep. Bart Stupak (D).
• 4: Frank McCloskey (D) over Rick McIntyre (R), US Representative from Indiana, 1984. McCloskey was seated in May 1985.
• 2: Louis Wyman (D) over John Durkin (R), US Senator from New Hampshire, 1974. The Senate ordered a revote, which Durkin won.
• 1: Mike Kelly (R) over Karl Kassel (D), Alaska State Representative, 2008. Not as consequential as the one in Pennsylvania - at least in terms of who has the majority - but Republicans have only a 22-18 majority in the Alaska House, which would be 21-19 had Kassel won. (No, Kassel's not related to the NPR personality. :-) )

Whether or not you help with GOTV these next few days will likely have a much bigger impact on the direction of our state and country than you may realize. Just a little more effort would have put Democrats in charge of the State Senate in 2006. Consequently, the people of Pennsylvania were spared a Republican state House thanks to the dedication of Democratic GOTV volunteers in the 156th state House district in 2006. A few hundred more votes may have meant that Al Franken would have been seated long before July 7, 2009. (Incidentally, Coleman led by 5 points in a SurveyUSA poll released the Saturday before the 2008 election.)

2010 will almost certainly have its share of close races in Michigan and throughout the country. With a couple polls now showing Democrats tied with or slightly leading Republicans among likely voters in the generic ballot for Congress, it's clear that control of the US House may depend on a few votes in a few districts.

But if absolutely nothing else convinces you to help GOTV for our fine Democratic candidates, I give you this:

On 18 January 1961, in Zanzibar (now part of Tanzania), the Afro-Shirazi Party won the general elections by a single seat, after the seat of Chake-Chake on Pemba Island was won by a single vote.

If Democrats lose the state House because of a tiny margin in one district... and it was because you did not help... are you ready to deal with the regret?

So please, head on over to your local campaign office or make some GOTV calls from home.

(PS: Information found by browsing the US Election Atlas, Michigan Department of State, Oakland County, and Wikipedia websites.)

A birthday wish

So here's the deal:

• Today's my 23rd birthday.
• Jocelyn Benson's birthday is tomorrow. Pat Miles's birthday was this past Tuesday.
• I'm not expecting much in the way of birthday presents - my family is not doing well, financially speaking.
• I'm still very much underemployed (I bartend once or twice a month).
• One third of our state's population lives in a competitive or quasi-competitive Congressional district (1, 3, 7, 9, 15).
• About a quarter of the state's population lives in a competitive State Senate district.
• About a third of the state's population lives in a competitive State House district.
• Whatever you think about the races for Governor and Attorney General, the Secretary of State's race is very competitive. And if Jocelyn doesn't win this time... well, I don't know what to say.
• The Republicans are going for revenge for their 2008 Supreme Court loss, targeting Justice Davis and airing slick "Young and Kelly, Kelly and Young" ads.
• Many people, good and otherwise, have been elected by a small number of votes, including John Engler, Mike Rogers, Roger Kahn, John Pappageorge, Al Franken, LBJ (to the US Senate), and I could go on.

I would really, really, really like it if you could give me - and Pat and Jocelyn - a birthday present. One that will help our entire state. And, for that matter, our entire country.

I ask each of you to give 23 hours of your time over the next couple of weeks to help get out the vote.

23 hours over 12 days. Sounds like a lot, right? Well, consider that there are many campaign staffers across the state who work 12- to 16-hour days during campaign season, seven days a week, all for very little pay. And they'll be doing that for twelve more days!

If they can do it, so can you. And each of those staffers would hate, hate, hate for their candidate to lose after all the effort they invested in this election. Especially if it's very close - like recount-close.

So stop by your local campaign office and sign up for a few shifts of GOTV work. And don't forget what else you can do: Let the Justice Caucus know you'd like to help with their Supreme Challenge campaign. Maybe even give a few bucks. Write a letter to the editor of your local paper. (As Election Day approaches, many papers have LTTE cutoff dates; any LTTEs submitted after that date will not be considered for publication - so get your letters in ASAP!)

You will help Democrats win races up and down the ballot. You will make new friends in the campaign office. You will help boost your chances of getting a leadership role in your local Democratic Party after the election (if you're into that kind of thing).

And you will help stun the pundits.

23 hours. That's not much of your time, when you think about it. And it's well worth the investment.

No regrets.

Let's leave it all on the field!

Bits of Tid: October 18, 2010

• First, let us bid a sad farewell to Robert B. Jones. The State Representative and nominee for Senate District 20 died Sunday morning at 66.
  
  Many people are conditioned to think that ALL politicians are the problem, or that they are ALL out of touch. I think this comes from the bad-news-first/if-it-bleeds-it­-leads culture evident in so much of the media (though not conveyed in this piece by Rick, thankfully!), as well as by people's own closed-mindedness.
  
  The reality is, most people in public office are decent people who are passionate, yet civil. Among them was Robert Jones.
  
  Thank you, sir. You have helped open opportunity for many people; may you be welcomed in Heaven with open arms!
  
  
• Robert Creamer lists Nine Reasons Why Democrats Will Keep Control of the House.
  
  
• Not to brag, but I've signed up for FOUR Get-Out-the-Vote Shifts in the days leading up to the election.
  
  
• Okay, does Senate nominee Joe Miller (R-AK) not think the First Amendment applies to journalists? Or does he just want to punish those who want to use their First Amendment rights against him? Either way, it's hard to argue that he supports freedom.
  
  
• This is the 12th general election (i.e. Presidential or gubernatorial election) in which Ruth Johnson has appeared on the ballot. This is the fifth office she has sought in that time, having been elected to the County Commission for ten years, State House for six years, and Oakland County Clerk since 2005, while losing as Dick DeVos's running mate in 2006 in the middle of her first four-year term as Clerk (she's now in the middle of her second). Career politician? Nah, of course not!
  
  
• Then there's Bill Schuette, who served six years in Congress, a couple years in the Engler administration, eight years as a state senator, and six years as a judge. Career politician? Nah, of course not!

EXCLUSIVE: Is Justin Amash violating the law? He's at least wasting taxpayer money

I got this in the mail today:































Notice that it's from Justin Amash. It lists his name and that he's currently State Representative.

Nothing wrong with that, you might think. State and federal lawmakers send these kinds of things to their constituents all the time. There probably would be nothing wrong with it had he not been running for anything this fall, or if he had lost the primary earlier on. If my state senator, Bill Hardiman, had sent it, I would not be making an issue out of it since he will not appear on this fall's ballot.

Except that there is something wrong with what Amash sent. He is the Republican nominee for Congress, we have just three weeks until the election, and people are voting absentee now. It's very difficult to believe that this mailer was not intended to benefit his campaign - to get people to believe that he wants them to be informed. Never mind that the ballot language is exactly the same as what voters will see on the ballot this fall. There's nothing that clarifies anything, or provides background, or does anything else besides repeating what the ballot will say anyway.

According to Michigan Compiled Law 169.247, emphasis mine:

(1) Except as otherwise provided in this subsection and subject to subsections (3) and (4), a billboard, placard, poster, pamphlet, or other printed matter having reference to an election, a candidate, or a ballot question, shall bear upon it the name and address of the person paying for the matter.

Well, it definitely has reference to an election! What it doesn't have is the required disclaimer.

A big issue here is how it was paid for. Was it paid for by the campaign? If so, it does not have the required disclaimer. Was it paid for by his State House office? If so, an argument could be made that he's using taxpayer dollars for campaign purposes - a BIG no-no. (Also, if it was from his State House office, one could make the political argument to the voters that he does not care about fiscal responsibility. But that's another matter altogether!)

I should note that we also received a perfectly legal campaign mailer from Amash today. Now, the fact that I received both items on the same day does not mean that they were sent at the same time or that they were meant to be delivered on the same day. But that could raise a few questions too.

UPDATE: I have heard from several sources that this perfectly legal. Fair enough. But still, it raises the question: Why is Amash wasting OUR tax dollars printing and mailing something that contains little more than the ballot questions as they will be worded on the ballot anyway?

Registering to vote and voting absentee - it's that time of election year again!

(Cross-posted at Michigan Liberal, Blogging for Michigan, West Michigan Rising, and Great Lakes, Great Times, Great Scott)

If you're reading this, you're probably registered to vote. Yay!

But you most likely have a few friends, relatives, coworkers, neighbors, roommates, etc., who are not registered.

You have two weeks to change that!

October 4 is the last day to register to vote in time for this fall's elections. Here's your voter-registration form, and here's the place to go to check to see if you're registered, so even if you know where you're registered, be sure to pass the word!

Speaking of voting, absentee ballots should be available this week, so if you haven't gotten your absentee application in, do so soon! (Okay, you can apply for an absentee ballot anytime between now and the Saturday before the election, October 30, but the sooner, the better!)

(PS: Anyone who has not registered to vote before should definitely register in person at their clerk's office, if possible. If they don't, they'll have to either vote in person on Election Day or apply for their absentee ballot in person at the clerk's office.)

Primary Highlighted by Urbanowski Wins

KENTWOOD, MI (ScottyUrb News) - Scott Urbanowski and his mother won their races for Democratic Precinct Delegate on Tuesday, the Kent County Clerk said Thursday.

Scott Urbanowski, 34 votes, was re-elected to a third term, while his mother, Karen Ann Urbanowski, received three votes as a write-in candidate. James Chase, who has been a precinct delegate at least as long as the younger Urbanowski, won with 28 votes.

"I'm humbled, I'm gratified, I'm happy, I'm delighted, and I'm good-looking," said Scott Urbanowski.

Scott thanked all of his supporters as well as the three people who voted for his mom - Scott himself, Scott's mom herself, and Scott's dad.

"I'd especially like to thank my parents, as well as my bird, Sniffles, and our dogs, Lucy and Phoebe."

"Given that my dad and I helped Mom win, we both expect her to repay us for helping her win," Scott said.

"Otherwise, we'll run a smear campaign next time!"

Critics, however, said Urbanowski relied too much on rookies for their support.

"He got his mom to run!" complained Betsy DeVos. "I would never get a relative to run for anything!"

"Not to mention that their new dog, Phoebe Hussein Osama, has been living with them for just three weeks! I wonder if she's here legally?"

Urbanowski said he got involved in the Democratic Party because "doing something is better than sitting on your McManus and doing nothing," referring to state Sen. Michele Bachmann-McManus, whom Republicans may nominate for Secretary of State.

"Democrats have a great slate of candidates running this time, including the populist mayor of Lansing, Virg Bernero, our next Governor; future Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson; future Attorney General David Leyton; our next 3rd District Congressman, Patrick Miles, Jr.; State Senator-to-be David LaGrand; and incumbent Kent County Commissioner Peter Hickey.

"Now if only we could do something about Socialist Kenyan Muslim Barry Husein bin Obomba."

Bits of Tid: June 29, 2010

• The 2nd quarter of fundraising ends at 11:59:59 tomorrow - don't forget to make a small contribution to your favorite candidates!
• Rachel, how do I love thee?
  
  Of course, we learned today that the financial reform bill has had a couple of setbacks. But still, they say it is more likely than not to pass. And with Elena Kagan likely to join Sonia Sotomayor on the Supreme Court, the enormity of Obama's impact on our government is just now becoming apparent.
• "Michigan NOW likes Virg," declares a headline from the Detroit News. Of course, they speak of the National Organization for Women:
  

• Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero continues to rake in endorsements from traditional Democratic Party constituencies.

  Which goes to show who has more support from involved grassroots Democrats. At any rate, the article continues:
  

  But it remains to be seen whether the endorsements translate into campaign cash. Bernero has yet to run any TV ads, while his opponent in the Democratic primary, House Speaker Andy Dillon, on Monday launched his second spot.

  Ah, yes - reminders of how Dick DeVos got on the air early and was easily elected over Granholm. Oh wait - didn't happen like that, did it?
• More reason to like Daily Kos: Time Magazine thinks it's "overrated." Kind of reminds me of when Carl Levin was talking about the Washington Post attacking him - he said that was "a badge of honor. I never made Nixon's Enemies list, and I wanted to make up for it ever since."
• I'll have some thoughts on Robert Byrd in a few days.

Democrats still in solid contention for governor's race

Or at least that's what Rasmussen says.

Before I say anything else, let me state that I'm hardly a fan of polls. After all, only two of them will matter: The one taken on August 3, and the one taken on November 2.

But if even rRasmussen says the Democratic candidates are not trailing the Republicans by very much at this point, I do believe there is something that we ought to take from this polling.

It ain't over yet.

Numbers:

MI-Gov: Rick Snyder (R) 42%, Virg Bernero (D) 30%
MI-Gov: Mike Cox (R) 40%, Virg Bernero (D) 34%
MI-Gov: Peter Hoekstra (R) 39%, Virg Bernero (D) 36%
MI-Gov: Rick Snyder (R) 41%, Andy Dillon (D) 33%
MI-Gov: Mike Cox (R) 39%, Andy Dillon (D) 37%
MI-Gov: Peter Hoekstra (R) 40%, Andy Dillon (D) 35%

It's safe to say Dillon and Bernero don't have as much name recognition as Cox, Hoekstra, or Snyder. On that alone, they should be doing a lot worse in these head-to-head matchups.

Notice, also, that the Republicans are also polling significantly under the all-important 50%. They also do so in other polls. Normally that's not a good sign for an incumbent to be under 50%, I would also argue that given their name recognition, this is not good And for much the same reason: Just as voters usually know a thing or two about an incumbent, they should also know a thing or two about these three Republicans.

So why am I mentioning all of this? After all, I just said that I'm not a fan of polls!

Well, what it says is that this election is not over yet. When people know more about Virg and/or Andy, one can reasonably expect that their numbers will rise. Right now it's"the devil you kind of know or at least have heard about" versus "the devil you don't know." When it's "two devils you kind of know or at least have heard about," our "devils" will fare better.

Gone are the days of many Democrats fearing that the governor's race was all but lost. Instead, the focus in Democratic circles seems to be upon the candidates themselves.

Speaking of polls, I read somewhere that 70% of Michigan Republicans say they are more excited about voting in 2010 than they were in 2008. Meanwhile, "only" 42% of Democrats feel that way. Kind of surprising that a full 42% on our side say they are actually more eager to vote this year than in the Year of Hope, Change, and a 15-point win for Obama in Michigan. (Don't tell the Press, which considered that "grim" news for Democrats.)

Why I'm Supporting David Leyton for Attorney General

One thing about being a Democrat is, when it comes to candidates for offices, we often have an embarrassment of riches. Deciding which candidates to support for the Democratic nomination can be a difficult - albeit exciting - task! In 2008, for instance, I was so impressed with Edwards, Obama, and Richardson that it took me quiote a while to finally back the Obama campaign.

Such is the case with this year's race for the Democratic nomination for Attorney General here in Michigan. I have had the chance to hear both of them speak, and each has a solid record of standing up for the people - which is something I like in a Democratic candidate! Each is also impressive in his own way and, I believe, is capable of taking on whichever excuse for a candidate the Republicans put up.

But after much thought, David Leyton has earned my vote at tomorrow's MDP Endorsement Convention.

Great leaders are willing to make difficult decisions that will benefit the people they lead. Leyton has served as Genesee County Prosecutor for more than five years; in this role he has had to tackle crime in one the most crime-ridden locales in the state, while managing a prosecutor's office that has not enjoyed the easiest time when it comes to the budget. Right now, Michigan needs an Attorney General who will do more with less - and the fact that Leyton has that prosecutorial and public-administration experience under his belt is what, in my mind, separates him from Bernstein.

Speaking of Bernstein, what really amazes me is that he has done all he has done - becoming an attorney, winning countless cases for regular folks, and, oh yes, running 12 Ironman triathlons - while blind! And, to quote from his website:

Bernstein appears frequently in court where he commits entire case files to memory.

That takes a lot of hard work - but we could use a few more hard workers in state government!

But Leyton has time and time proven that he too is a hard worker and a champion of the people. And when I heard each of the talk, both of them spoke extensively about many different issues -including protecting seniors, the disabled, the less fortunate, consumers, and the environment. As I said, they are both very capable public servants.

But while I think Bernstein's future remains bright, tomorrow my vote will go to Prosecutor David Leyton to be our Party's endorsee for Attorney General.

Why I Support Jocelyn Benson for Secretary of State

Over the next couple of days, I will be sharing with you which candidates I am supporting for the Democratic nominations for Governor, Secretary of State, and Attorney General. We will, of course, be voting to endorse candidates for Secretary of State and Attorney General at this weekend's Endorsement Convention, but while we don't vote on the Governor's race until August, I have settled on a candidate. I'll share my preferred candidates for Governor and AG later in the week.

First off is the race for Secretary of State. We have two Democratic candidates, but one of them stands out and has shown that she is capable of being a solid Secretary of State. That candidate is Jocelyn Benson.

She has been a national leader in advancing fairness and justice in our elections and our society as a whole. She has worked for the DNC, the SPLC, the Harvard Civil Rights Project, and - like Jennifer Granholm - she was a clerk for Judge Damon J. Keith. She has also fought off one attempt to close a Secretary of State branch and an attempt to prevent victims of foreclosure from voting. She also achieved tenure as a professor of election law at Wayne State University and has published a book on best practices of secretaries of state.

Benson's broad platform includes removing barriers that often face would-be voters; cracking down on election fraud and intimidation; easing voter registration; supporting consumers' rights; improving customer service at the Secretary of State branches.

More importantly, however, seems to be her dedication to listening to people and making good use of their input. I'm involved with both the Kent and Isabella Democratic Parties, and Jocelyn has met with both County Parties more than once. She demonstrated very early in the campaign that unlike many politicians, she is a listener.

No wonder she's racked up so many endorsements: more than half of the county parties; countless state lawmakers and local officials; and several caucuses, unions, and other progressive organizations are joining Jocelyn's campaign.

On paper, Janice Winfrey does have some accomplishments about which she can boast. She has served as City Clerk for Detroit and has done some things to ensure election integrity in Detroit. However, her Vision page on her website is lacking.

It is Jocelyn Benson whose record and vision are what Michigan needs now. She is the one who has the ideas, dedication, and willingness to listen and understand that, if elected, would make her a truly remarkable public servant. That is why I will be proud to vote for her this Saturday.

Why You Should Get Involved in This Year's Campaign

(This is part 1 of a 4-part series leading up to this Saturday's Endorsement Convention. Parts 2 and 3 will deal with the races for Secretary of State and Attorney General, while Part 4 will feature my thoughts on the race for Governor, even though we won't vote on that until August.)

We dodged a bullet here at CMU.

For the fifth and final time as an undergrad, last week I cast a vote in our Student Government Association presidential election. A former SGA Senator, I still care about what goes on in SGA - and was quite concerned by what might have happened had the wrong candidate won the SGA presidency.

That candidate's SGA experience consisted of one semester representing the "Campus Conservatives" (which the now-Cheboygan drain commissioner founded) in SGA. In true conservative fashion, he didn't do his job (he was subject to removal from SGA due to absences) and lied, lied, lied about his opponent. He also ran on a platform that, among other things, included "lowering tuition."

Had he won, it would have shown that people can get away with lying to people and not doing your job. Thankfully, he lost.

We at CMU dodged a bullet, but what if Michigan and America aren't so lucky?

What would it say if Michigan's next governor were someone like Mike Cox, who has sued to prevent people from getting the health coverage they need, or Pete Hoekstra, who capitalized on America's near-misfortune by fundraising off the attempted plane attack near Detroit? What would it say if teabaggers get their way in the election?

It would say that it's okay to attack the working class. It would say that lies are okay. It would say that carelessness, reckless, and incivility are to be embraced by all who wish to be in politics.

We have plenty of time to do something about that... but it's up to you and me!

This year does not seem like the best year to be a Democrat. To be perfectly honest, if you forced me to guess, I would say that Republicans are more likely to win the governorship and enough other top races to stop Michigan from moving forward on key issues. Look which party's candidates have the name recognition and monetary advantage - then add in the fact that a lot of voters are unhappy with how things are going, and look which party holds the governor's office. (It's a shame that governors and presidents are blamed and credited for things that the legislature and Congress do or don't do, but that's another story.)

But that in no excuse for anyone to not do their part to get progressive Democrats elected! 203 days before an election is 203 days too early to give up! After all:

• We have superb candidates. We have a couple of great candidates for governor, plus Andy Dillon. We also have spectacular candidates for Secretary of State, AG, and other offices. All of our nominees will surely be worthy of our support!
• Cox? Hoekstra? Really? No more embarrassments for Michigan!
• The Democratic Party is worth supporting. While the Democratic Party is far from perfect, it is the Democrats who have the great ideas needed to tackle great challenges. Democrats have been the ones leading the great transformations of American Policy - from the New Deal to the Fair Deal to the Great Society to the Big F***ing Deal. And while not all Democratic politicians are great, most great politicians we have nowadays are Democrats.
• Look what the Republican Party has become. Lies, ineptitude, and attacking and opposing progress are not what we need - but, sadly, that is what has become of the other party. What used to be the Party of Ford, Milliken, and Eisenhower is now the party of disaster, teabagging, insulting the meaning of freedom and liberty, and "Hell No You Can't!"
• The Republicans are divided as heck. You know how the 'liberal' media has spent so much time and effort telling us that the Dems are divided and in disarray? Well, I got two words for you: Michael Steele. Not to mention that, unlike in years past, the Republicans aren't outraising the Democrats by hefty margins. Of course, the impact of the activist Roberts Court's decision against democracy is yet to be known.
• Speaking of money, how's Governor DeVos doing? I mean, he must be governor, since he (a) outspent Granholm by oodles; (b) ran as a challenger in a beleaguered state; (c) ran in what is usually called a toss-up state; and (d) . So he must have at least eked out a win in 2006. Oh, wait... Granholm won? By 14 points?!?! Well, I guess money and anti-incumbent fever
  
• We have a good shot at holding the State House. In 2008, we won 67 House seats to the Republicans' 43. It would take an enormous shift for the Republicans to gain 13 seats and take back the House.
• We may very well take back the state Senate. The Democrats came within a few thousand votes of taking back the state Senate in 2006. While the Repubs have since gained a seat via Mike Nofs, Dems can gain control with four pickups. Casandra Ulbrich in the 12th (Bike Bishop's seat), Doug Spade in the 16th, David LaGrand in the 29th, Bob Jones in the 20th, Mary Valentine in the 34th, and Andy Newmann in the 36th are all running in seats held by Republicans that we may very well take - if they get our support!

Given all that's at stake, how can we afford to not support progressive Democrats running for Secretary of State and Attorney General at this weekend's Endorsement Convention, and other progressives running in the primary in August? And= how can we afford not to give our Democratic candidates our full support?

This is our chance. Our chance to once again say NO to the politics of hatred and cynicism, and YES to progressivism and true public service. As I said, not all Democrats are amazing.... but I'll take an okay Democrat over almost any Republican.

Yes We Can once again bring about the change we so desperately need in our communities, our Great Lakes State, and this wonderful nation!

Proven Leadership: Why I Support Mike Cox for Governor

For eight years, Michigan has wallowed in the pain of a governor who doesn't value our businesses. Jennifer Hussein Granholm has single-handedly destroyed Michigan in the past several years. In fact she has been so horrible that, anticipating her Marxist stranglehold, Michigan's unemployment rate actually surpassed the national rate more than a year after she became governor.

It is clear, then, that we need someone who's actually going to step up and lead. That's why I support Mike Cox for Governor.

Cox has taken the lead by:

• Interfering in an investigation into a wild party at Manoogian Mansion;
  
• Suing to stop Michigan residents from getting the healthcare they need; and
  
• Refusing to do his job. We cannot have a governor who does their job and proves that government actually can work!!!
  

This was a difficult choice for me to make. Pete Hoekstra has opposed everything from healthcare to environmental regulations to doing the right thing. But while Cox has done all of this, Hoekstra has been less forceful, leading me to believe that the Congressman may be a Communist.

Tom George and Mike Bouchard are even worse Communists - have they spoken out against making government work? Not that much!

And Rick Snyder? HE ACTUALLY BRAGS ABOUT BEING A NERD! WE CANNOT HAVE A SMART GOVERNOR!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

That's why we need to support Mike Cox for Governor. He impedes justice and equality and is determined to make government not do anything. In short, he he is a conservative in the truest sense of the term.

Oh, and one more thing:

APRIL FOOL'S!

Bernero: "Being a good leader starts with being a good person"

Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero, one of our Democratic candidates for Governor, came to CMU to speak to students and to answer our questions. While I won't pretend that I'm 100% behind Virg, Alma, or Andy, I will say that now I know why so many others are supporting the Mayor!

Unsurprisingly, Virg talked mostly about economic issues. He discussed, among other things, his proposal for a state bank; our need for better trade policy; the importance of manufacturing; unions; Wall Street's refusal to invest in Michigan; the tendency of some to blame the workers for our economic problems; and so much more.

Virg also talked about his record in Lansing - including how he was able to get the budget done on time, without laying off a single person.

Beyond economic policy, Virg is also a supporter of the new healthcare reform law, though he (like many of us, myself included) doesn't think it's perfect. He also supports a woman's right to choose, though he only talked briefly about it, saying that as a man, he doesn't make decisions about abortion.

In terms of economics, I'm not sure I've ever (or at least lately) heard anyone in politics sound so wonk-ish and nerdy as Virg Bernero. (Especially not Snyder!) And yet he comes off like a regular guy someone smart enough and easygoing enough to relate to people and understand what our state needs.

While I don't know for sure who I will support on August 3, Virg Bernero has made a very solid impression on me.

CD-03: Mayhue (D) is in, Amash to face challengers

WZZM reports that former Kent County Commissioner Paul Mayhue will enter the race to succeed retiring Rep. Vern Ehlers.

Mayhue says he is entering the race because he is concerned about jobs and said that as a community we have seen "NAFTA give us the SHAFTA. Mayhue says he is concerned with government giving tax breaks to companies exporting jobs to other countries.

"Business and Labor need to come together on this issue," Mayhue said in a press release. "The American taxpayer is paying for jobs to be taken away from us all."

Also running on the Democratic side is attorney Patrick Miles, Jr.

Right-wing Republican Justin Amash- who announced his run before Ehlers said he would retire - will face competition in the Republican primary from State Sen. Bill Hardiman and former Commissioner Steven Heacock.

Kent County - which is not entirely, but mostly, in the 3rd District and which also makes up the lion's share of the 3rd - went for Obama by 1,573 votes. McCain barely won the district; each got 49%. So this just might be more competitive than most people will acknowledge!

Help shape our Democratic Party!

Hey, you! Yeah, that's right - YOU!!

• Do you want to be more involved as a Democrat?
• Do you want to strengthen your voice in our Party and our communities?
• Do you want to help decide whom the Democratic Party nominates for offices like SoS and AG?
• Do you want to help steer the direction of the Democratic Party, including what our platform will look like and what issues the Party supports?

If you answered YES to any or all of these questions, then have I got the opportunities for you!

1. Join the Michigan Democratic Party. In order to vote at the April 17 Endorsement Convention, you must be an MDP member for 30 days before the Convention. So join or renew your membership by March 18 to have a chance to support your favorite candidates for office!

Plus, since memberships are good for one year, your membership will still be good for next

February's State Convention, at which we will elect our state Party leadership and adopt some resolutions. So join the MDP and have your say!

2. Become a Precinct Delegate! What is a Precinct Delegate? Well, I got this in an email a couple of years ago:

The Precinct Delegate is one of the most important of any elected office. It is the active Precinct Delegate who wins elections for the Democratic Party. Precinct Delegates are elected directly by the voters of each precinct to serve as a bridge between voters and the Democratic Party. Precinct Delegates represent the Democratic Party in their neighborhoods and represent their neighborhoods and Democratic Party meetings.

Precinct Delegates:
-Help Democrats get registered to vote
-Take information on issues and candidates to the voters in their precinct
-Identify other Democrats and recruit new Party members
-Help turn out the Democratic vote on Election Day
-Keep Democratic leaders informed about the issues that concern voters

So, essentially, you would be a liaison of sorts between the Democratic Party and your community.

It is an elected position, and you will get to vote for yourself in the August primary election. Better yet, you will probably win, since many precincts have more delegate seats than candidates!

Oh, and did I mention you can hone your resolution-writing skills? My meager self wrote two resolutions that were adopted at the Kent County Democratic Convention in February 2009 - they were then adopted at the State Convention a couple weeks later, all because I am a Precinct Delegate!

So, take advantage of these opportunities to move our Democratic Party in the direction YOU want it to move! Things will happen when YOU take the time to get involved.

Brewer supports Endorsement Convention

Mark Brewer has an idea:

Brewer told the Free Press he will ask hundreds of top party officials today to call for an “endorsement convention” as a way to give those candidates more months to raise money for their campaigns, and to promote the party’s ticket – whatever that will be.

Those endorsements would virtually assure the candidates’ nomination at the regular state convention during the last weekend of August, Brewer said.

It would be the first time the party has held such a separate convention in an election year to endorse candidates.

This doesn't seem like a bad idea - at first glance. Of course, not knowing the details, we don't know if there's a devil in said details.

Theoretically, the August convention is where delegates to the State Convention (that is, those who are MDP members as of the Convention, usually for at least 30 days beforehand) vote for Democratic nominees for SoS, AG, Education boards, Supreme Court, and (in Presidential years) Electoral College electors. That vote is done on a proportional basis by county and Congressional district; each county gets a certain number of votes, to be divided evenly among the delegates. So, living in Kent County, I might get 1.73 votes, for example, depending on how well Obama did in the county and how many Kentians show up at the convo.

In practice, what usually happens is that there is no contested election for delegates to vote on. There will only be as many candidates as are being nominated, and the Delegates will vote to cast a unanimous ballot for that candidate/those candidates. Whether the field is cleared in a proverbial 'smoke-filled room,' as some suggest, or whether the candidates themselves decide they don't want a 'floor fight,' the August conventions don't usually involve a contested choice for these nominations. (Bowen vs. Williams in 2006 was the last notable one.)

What this 'endorsement convention' idea would do, then, is to ensure that there would almost certainly be no contest at the August convention (except in a special circumstance, i.e. an endorsee dies, gets a serious illness, or - on a much less somber note - goes hiking the Appalachian Trail on Nude Hiking Day).

That makes it more important that the endorsement convention, if it does happen, will be more reflective of what rank-and-file Michigan Democrats want.

Oh, and while I'm thinking about this topic, I'd like to put in a plug for having an MDP convention somewhere outside Detroit and Lansing - in GR, Saginaw, or elsewhere.

Running Around the State

• First, my thoughts on John Cherry: For 27 years - starting with his joining the State House in 1983 - John Cherry has served Michigan with a tireless dedication to public service and commitment to the people of Michigan. He has served with integrity, always willing to work with others, but never willing to sacrifice his principles for the sake of personal gain. For that, I am grateful.
  
  A number of Democrats are joining the race for Governor. We Democrats are often a spoiled bunch when it comes to good candidates; there are usually so many good people to choose from! I look forward to finding out more about them, possibly meeting one or two, and supporting one in the primary.
  
• Joe Dumars and Denise Illitch are two new potential names for the Democratic nomination for governor. Incidentally, this is not the first time I've heard rumors surrounding Illitch; a couple weeks ago, I got a call from a polling firm that asked who I would vote for if the Democratic primary featured John Cherry, Andy Dillon, and Denise Illitch.
• Try Not to Hurl at the Thought, Part I: Bart Stupak (of Stupak Amendment fame) might also make a run, per The Detroit News. Incidentally, Chase Osborn is the only Yooper ever to serve as Governor.
• That same article says Dennis Archer, the former Supreme Court Justice and former Detroit mayor, and Wayne County Executive Robert Ficano will not run. The News also says Congressman Gary Peters will opt for re-election to Congress.
• Aside from the race for Governor, do you remember Jane Beckering? She ran for Supreme Court in 2006. Justice Elizabeth Weaver and others have suggested that Beckering might make another run this year. Weaver and Robert Young, both nominated by Republicans for a race that appears on the ballot as non-partisan, are in the final year of their current terms.
• David LaGrand, is making another run for State Senate in the 29th District (Grand Rapids area). LaGrand came within a few thousand votes of knocking off popular Republican Sen. Bill Hardiman in 2006. That year, Hardiman got 71% of the vote in Kentwood, where he used to be Mayor; Obama won Kentwood two years later.
• Try Not to Hurl at the Thought, Part II: Looking ahead to 2012, there's speculation that one John Mathias Engler might be looking to challenge Debbie Stabenow for the US Senate that year. He's looking for a home to buy in mid-Michigan. Hey John: There's a foreclosed home down the street from me here in Kentwood, in case you want to know what it's like for ordinary people. At any rate, it does seem to say something about the Republicans if they might be forced to pin their hopes on someone who's been out of the state for much of the past several years and who many Michiganians will have forgotten or not even heard of by then.
• Try Not to Hurl at the Thought, Part III: You don't know how tempted I was to call this post "Michigan Has the Runs."
• UPDATE: Michigan Radio says Gov. Granholm has offered some comments on the Governor's race, including that she will not publicly endorse anyone.