Behold, All Things Have Become New: Happy 2007!

Can you believe another year has come and gone? I just cannot get my mind around the fact that this is 2007!!

Memories
Boy, 2006 flew right by us! What were some of my highlights?

• Joining the Knights of Columbus the first week of the year
  
• Participating in Wheeler Hall’s Open Mic Night
  
• Joining the SGA Senate
  
• Easter Vigil at St. Mary’s in Mount Pleasant (and having my dorm room to myself that weekend, as couple of roomies went to see Dane Cook and the other - like most on campus - went home for the weekend
  
• Becoming a precinct delegate
  
• A lengthy campaign season in which my emotions fluctuated between hope and despair for our governor, while assuming (until the last few weeks) that Congress would stay in GOP hands
  
• Casting my first vote ever - to renew a school district sinking fund in February (it passed)
  
• Voting, first in the primary, and then by absentee for the general election
  
• A joyous election night that already seems so long ago

2006: What a ride.

How I celebrated 2007
On Sunday Mom and Dad went to a New Year’s Eve party, so my dogs, birds, and I stayed home. I took the dogs for a walk. Our walk route included a couple of Little League baseball fields. As we paused at a couple of the fields, I thought of the many kids who played ball and made so many memories on those fields this summer - memories they will cherish for a lifetime. I will probably be the last person to walk on these fields in 2006, I thought to myself.

I turned on “Dick Clark’s New Year’s Rockin’ Eve” at 10. Dick Clark himself was still not in the best of shape after suffering a stroke a couple years ago. But he was better than last year. His countdown was a little In the last few seconds, his countdown was a bit off. Still, I enjoyed watching it. Then at midnight, I kissed my dog Lucy and kind of sang along as‘Auld Lang Syne’ played on TV.

Predictions
Some of these predictions for 2007 are based on historical precedent, while others are just guesses.

• An assistant coach at U-M or MSU will become CMU’s new football coach. Just a guess.
  
• The Colts will win the Super Bowl. Their time has come.
  
• Two governors will resign. Just a guess
  
• Bush will veto more bills this year than Granholm. A Democratic Congress will pass more bills Bush won't approve of, but a State House in Democratic hands will mean not as much bad legislation will get to the Governor's
  
• Sorry, Al Gore - no Oscars. I just don't feel it happening.
  
• Hillary Clinton will NOT run for President. Either Feingold or Bayh will reconsider their decision not to run. Meanwhile, Vilsack will drop out of the race sometime in the summer or early fall.
  
• There will not be any contested races for Kentwood City Commission. Grand Rapids will see two. (Kentwood has seen just two contested City Commission races in the last four odd-numbered years.)
  
• The Tigers will again make it to the ALCS and, perhaps, the World Series. The team is largely unchanged from 2006, but it will have Gary Sheffield.
  
• I will decide by May 1 who I will support for the Democratic nomination. I settled on Howard Dean pretty early in 2003, but then I switched to Bob Graham, then Dennis Kucinich, then Wesley Clark, then back to Dean until he dropped out of the primaries.
  
• Osama bin Laden will not be found. He hasn't been found yet, has he?

Resolutions
In each of the last few years I have made vague resolutions to lose weight, be financially better off., and treat myself well. This year, I plan to save some of the cash I earn working, but also drink six glasses of water per day. Water helps with weight loss. I will also work to get higher grades. (Dean’s List anyone? Okay perhaps I’m being a wee bit optimistic. But it’s good to be optimistic.)

So here’s to an amazing 2007 for you, me, and our entire nation and world!

(PS: "Behold, all things have become new" comes from 2 Corinthians 5:17.)

Thoughts on Gerald R. Ford (1913-2006)

As someone who lives near former President Gerald R. Ford's longtime hometown of Grand Rapids, I was saddened to learn of the passing of our 38th President.

Five months and twelve days after his 93rd birthday (he was the oldest President in US history), Ford passed away peacefully at 6:45 PM Pacific Time (9:45 PM Eastern Time) Tuesday at his home in California, with his wife Betty and family by his side.

He is the only Eagle Scout to become President thus far. After graduating first from the University of Michigan (where he was an amazing football player, though he turned down offers to play for the Packers and the Lions) and then from Yale Law School, he served his country in World War II. He was then elected to represent Grand Rapids in Congress in 1948, becoming House Republican Leader in 1965. In 1973, he became Vice President after Spiro Agnew resigned. Just months later, President Richard Nixon resigned due to the Watergate scandal, propelling then-VP Ford into the Presidency.

It was Ford's job to heal the nation after the horrible effects of the Watergate scandal. With his light-heartedness and relaxed personality, he largely succeeded - even if he did anger many people by pardoning Nixon.

Even though I'm a Democrat, I will miss Ford. Ford was a very decent Republican who took office when the nation yearned for his leadership after the resignation of Richard Nixon. His brand of honesty and humility is rare in politics today.

It will be interesting to see how the Grand Rapids area will react to the death of perhaps the greatest West Michigander to have ever lived. His presidential museum downtown - which I pass every weekend on my way to church - is closed except for a vestibule, which includes books where people may leave their condolences. There is also a makeshift memorial by the fountain in front of the museum. He will be laid to rest next Wednesday at the museum.

Rest in peace, Mr. President.

A first look at Election 2008

For the first time since 1952, neither the incumbent President nor the incumbent VP will be a nominee for the White House. After Dick Cheney announced early in his Vice Presidency that he wouldn't run for President, many analysts have predicted that the 2008 White House race was as open as it has been in a while. In other words, it is hard to tell who could be the 44th President (as opposed to 2000, when Gore and Bush were the favorited to become their parties' nominees).

So who's running? Who's not? Who's on the fence? (Asterisk denotes those who have run for president in the past; two asterisks mean they have run for President twice)

Who's in?

The following candidates have announced their candidacies for President or have filed to form what is called an exploratory committee: (Asterisk denotes those who have run for president in the past)

Sen. Joe Biden (D-DE)*
Fmr. Sen. John Edwards (D-NC)*
Fmr. Sen. Mike Gravel (D-AK)
Rep. Dennis Kucinich (D-OH)*
Gov. Bill Richardson (D-NM)
Outgoing Gov. Tom Vilsack (D-IA)
Fmr. Gov. Jim Gilmore (R-VA)
Fmr. Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R-NY)
Sen. Sam Brownback (R-KS)
Rep. Duncan Hunter (R-CA)
Sen. John McCain (R-AZ)*
Outgoing Gov. Mitt Romney (R-MA)
Fmr. HHS Sec. Tommy Thompson (R-WI)

Who's Out?

The following people have said they will not run for President in 2008.

Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN)
Fmr. Sen. Tom Daschle (D-SD)
Fmr. Gov. Howard Dean (D-VT)*
Sen. Russ Feingold (D-WI)
Fmr. VP. Al Gore (D-TN)**
Fmr. Gov. Mark Warner (D-VA)
Gov. Haley Barbour (R-MS)
Outgoing Gov. Jeb Bush (R-FL)
Outgoing Sen. Bill Frist (R-TN)
Sec. of State Condoleezza Rice (R-CA)
Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R-MN)
Gov. Mark Sanford (R-SC)

Who's on the fence? (And I don't mean the miles-long fence along the Mexican Border)

The following people may or may not run in 2008.

Gen. Wesley Clark (Ret.), US Army (D-AR)* - Prediction: Will run.
Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-NY) - Prediction: Will not run. (You heard it here first.)
Sen. John Kerry (D-MA)* - Prediction: Will run.
Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) - Prediction: Will not run.
Fmr. Rep. Newt Gingrich (R-GA) - Prediction: Will run.
Sen. Chuck Hagel (R-NE) - Prediction: Will run.

The Upgrade: Version 2.0

I've upgraded my account to the new version of Blogger, which requires a Google account. It allows me to add labls for my posts, such as the one below.

I have also decided to consider changing the name of this blog. "Scott Does Politics" was hastily chosen a few months ago, and I want a new name.

A few ideas:

Scott Semper Tyrannis - a takeoff on sic semper tyrannis, Latin for "Thus always to tyrants"

Post Scott Ergo Propter Scott - Post hoc ergo propter hoc is Latin for "After this, because of this"

Great Scott Talks Great Lakes

Urban Areas - part of my last name ;-)

The Political Polak - A 'polak' is a man of Polish descent. I'm also part German.

The Fired-up Chip - "Fire up Chips!" is a common cheer at CMU sporting events.

Other suggestions???

Levin (D-Awesome) to run for re-election

It's been a hectic few weeks, but now that I finally have a chance to post, here's some good news to make the wait worth it.

WASHINGTON - Democratic Sen. Carl Levin, the incoming chairman of the Armed Services Committee, said Monday he will seek re-election in 2008.

The 72-year-old Michigan lawmaker was widely expected to seek a sixth term and will enter the race a heavy favorite. With Democrats winning control of the Senate, Levin will take the helm of the Armed Services panel, giving him a major role in shaping Iraq policy.

The Detroit lawmaker has called for troop withdrawals from Iraq beginning within four to six months. He has criticized the Bush administration for making the war open-ended, saying the White House has provided the Iraqis with a blank check with the presence of U.S. troops.

Levin said he hopes to win another term, citing his work on Armed Services and on issues crucial to Michigan's automotive and manufacturing industries.

Carl is most likely a shoe-in. He won 61% of the vote in a Republican year (2002), and he was named one of America's 10 Best Senators by TIME Magazine.

Levin to lead Senate investigation into rendition, torture

The Guardian has the scoop:

Abuses carried out under the CIA's secret programme of extraordinary rendition are to be investigated by one of the Senate's most powerful committees, it emerged today.

The new chairman of the Senate armed services committee, the Democratic senator Carl Levin, revealed that he was "not comfortable" with the rendition system and said it was making the US less secure.

...

Asked whether he would investigate the renditions programme, including the secret prisons and missing detainees, Mr Levin replied: "Yes. Yes, yes and yes."

...

Amnesty International has described extraordinary renditions as a policy of "disappearances" and welcomed Mr Levin's announcement.

"It is long overdue," an Amnesty spokeswoman said. "Many aspects of the US war on terror are of concern and are questionable. There is a need for greater transparency and we need to know who has been taken and where."

...

Mr Levin made his comments as he was outlining the priorities of the committee after the Democrats' gain in last week's midterm elections. The first order of business would be to change the direction of Iraq policy, he said.

Good going for Michigan’s longest-serving US Senator in history, whom TIME Magazine named one of America’s 10 Best Senators. Now if only we can get Debbie on board…

Granholm landslide highlights a great week to be a Democrat!!

As of 4:30 Thursday, here's an UPDATED look at how the election returns are shaping up according to CNN and Michigan Liberal:

Last night, the Democrats gained control of the US Senate as Jim Webb (D) beat George Allen (R) in Virginia. US Senate: 50 Democrats, 49 Republicans, 1 independent.

US House: 229 Democrats, 196 Republicans, 10 undecided seats.

Governorships: 28 Democrats, 21 Republicans, one undecided race (MN; The Repub incumbent is leading by a small margin). Granholm 56%, DeVos 42%. Rougly 3.8 million people voted in Michigan. 3.4 million were expected to vote. Damn, that's awesome!

Ballot proposals: 1 passes, 2 passes (^@&#), 3 fails, 4 passes, 5 fails.

State Senate: It looks like 21 Republicans, 17 Democrats. Just a couple thousand votes in a couple seats would have tipped the balance. Grr. But hey, we did get the......

State House: 58 Democrats, 52 Republicans.

Democrats SWEPT the races for State Board of Education, and U-M, MSU, and Wayne State governing boards! Has that ever happened?

Election 2006 predictions: How well did I do?

Governor/Lieutenant Governor:
Granholm/Cherry* 51%-47%
Actual: 56-42% (better than I expected)

Secretary of State:
Land* 58-41%
Actual: 56-42% (better)

Attorney General:
Cox* 53%-46%
Actual: 54-43% (worse)

US Senate:
50 Republicans. 49 Democrats
Actual: 50D, 49R, 1I (better than I tought - woohoo!!)

Michigan:
Stabenow* (D) 55-44%
Actual: 57-41%

US House:
Democrats: 219, Republicans: 216
Actual: 230-196 (with 9 undecided)

MI-3:
Ehlers* 61-38%
Actual: 63-35%

MI-4:
Camp* 58%-41%
Actual: 60-38%

State House:
56 Democrats, 54 Republicans
Actual: 58-42

District 72:
Steil* 78-20%
Actual: 66-32%

District 75:
Dean 52-48%
Actual: 51-47%

District 99:
Caul* 64-36%
Actual: 58-42%

State Senate:
19-19 plus Lt. Gov. Cherry's tie-breaking vote
Actual: It looks like 21-17 Repubs.

District 29:
Hardiman* 49.7-49.1%
Actual: 53-46%

District 33:
Cropsey* 59-41%
Actual: 54-44%

State Board of Education:
Weiser*, Turner*, McMillin, Ulbrich
Actual: Ulbrich, Turner, McMillin, Weiser

U-M Regents:
Brandon*, White*, Darlow, Brown
Actual: White, Darlow, Brown, Brandon

MSU Trustees:
Perles, Porteous*, Cook*, Owen
Actual: Perles, Owen, Cook, Porteous

WSU Governors:
Dingell, Driker*, McLemore, Akouri
Actual: Dingell, Driker, Akouri, McLemore

Supreme Court:
Cavanagh*, Corrigan*, Beckering, Shulman
Actual: Cavanagh, Corrigan, Beckering, Shulman

Kent County Drain Commissioner:
Byl 58-42%
Actual: 58-42%

17th Circuit Court:
Brinkman 50.2-49.8%
Actual: Trusock 51-49%

Ballot proposals (in tems of what percentage of voters vote yes):
Proposal 1: 61%
Proposal 2: 46%
Proposal 3: 41%
Proposal 4: 64%
Proposal 5: 41%

Actual: 82%, 58%, 31%, 80%, and 38%, respectively

Thoughts on Election Day 2006

"This is not a time to sit back and let others decide the state’s and country's fate." – Mark Brewer, MDP Chair

"The only poll that matters will be on Election Day and it will signal a new direction for America. " -Howard Dean, Democratic National Chair

"This is the time for us to stand up and be counted. Together, we will help Democrats take back Congress on Tuesday, bringing the change that our troops, our families, and all Americans so desperately need." – Gen. Wesley Clark (Ret.)

"I’m depending on you to help me keep our plan, and our vision of Michigan’s future, alive. … You can make the difference in this election." –Gov. Jennifer Granholm

"Remind your world: Vote tomorrow." -100actions.com

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Happy Election Day!!

Hopefully, you all have voted (at least you Democrats... Republicans, please check out www.republicansforgranholm.com before voting. ;-) ) I voted absentee a couple weeks ago. 3.4 million people are expected to vote.

I really, really, REALLY want the Democrats to kick butt this election. We haven't had a good Election Night since... a long time ago.

The polls are looking good. Jenny's up anywhere between 6 and 14 points, Debbie's up even more. (They're doing much better than I predicted they will; see previous entry.)

How am I? Nervous, yes. I want Jenny and Debbie to win big. Same with Amos Williams. I also want the Democrats to control Congress and the Legislature. And boy, do I ever want Prop 2 to go down big time!! (And I have plenty of company on that one.)

But perhaps my thoughts can be best summed up by Matt Ferguson over at Michigan Liberal:

"But the sun will come back. It always does. Before long it will be time once again to stroll along our magnificent Great Lakes shoreline, feeling the soft sand between our toes; the smooth and rhthymic din of the waves washing over our souls; the crisp coolness of that annual first plunge into the water that tells us we're alive and living in one of the most miraculous places on earth! This...is ours. It's our habitat; our imagination; part of our humanity."

All the best to Michigan and all of America.

Election 2006 Predictions

These predictions are mine and mine alone. Percentages often do NOT add up to 100% to account for third party performance.

Governor/Lieutenant Governor: Jenny is peaking at just the right time. Unlike the last two Dem governors (Swainson in 1962, Blanchard in 1990), Jenny won't lose for re-election.
Granholm/Cherry* 51%
DeVos/Johnson 47%

Secretary of State:
Land* 58%
Sabaugh 41%

Attorney General:
Cox* 53%
Williams 46%

US Senate: Didn't expect this one to bbe within reach. That said, I don't want to be too optimistic.
50 Republicans
49 Democrats

Michigan:
Stabenow* (D) 55%
Bouchard 44%

US House: A lot of people say they expect Democrats to win control of the House. Even Bill Ballenger predicted Dems would hold a 220-215 advantage! I've convinced myself that it won't happen. That way, if it doesn't, I won't be disappointed. But now I'll say it: I predict Speaker Pelosi come January.
Democrats: 219
Republicans: 216

MI-3: Rinck has name recognition, which is unusual for Ehler's oppoonent. Plus, it's a bad year for Repubs, so he won't do as well as usual. (He usually gets 67% or better.
Ehlers* 61%
Rinck 38%

MI-4: More people know Huck in '06 than in '04... but they still like Camp!
Camp* 58%
Huckleberry 41%

State House:
56 Democrats
54 Republicans

District 72 (Kentwood, Cascade, Caledonia): I'm stuck with Prop 2 supporter and minimum wage opponent Steil for another two years.
Steil* 78%
Hinton 20%

District 75 (part of G.R.): This is an open seat, where the Dem challenger got 48% in '04 after barely campaigning.
Dean 52%
Doyle 48%

District 99 (Isabella + part of Midland): Putting it mildly, Partlo is a disaster. ICDP endorsee and 20-something Eric Welsby would break 40% if he had won the nomination. (He lost in the primary by 61 votes.)
Caul* 64%
Partlo 36%

State Senate:
19 Democrats, plus Lt. Gov. Cherry's tie-breaking vote
19 Republicans

District 29 (Grand Rapids, Kentwood): This district is split in terms of party lines. Six months ago, I would've said that Hardiman was a loock for re-election, getting around 60-65% of the vote. But LaGrand has surprised me. I predict it will be close, with the popular Hardiman edging out the also-popular LaGrand.
Hardiman* 49.7%
LaGrand 49.1%

District 33 (Isabella, Montcalm, Ionia, Clinton):
Cropsey* 59%
White 41%

The following races are listed in terms of what order each major candidate will finish in. Top two get elected.

State Board of Education: The 5-3 Dem majority remains.
1. Eileen Weiser*
2. Reginald Turner*
3. Tom McMillin
4. Casandra Ulbrich

U-M Regents: 5-3 Dems here too. Again, no change.
1. David Brandon*
2. Kathy White*
3. Julia Darlow
4. Susan Brown

MSU Trustees: For any candidate, name recognition is important. This is especially true here, and that will help Perles more than his actions at MSU will hurt him. The GOP holds a 5-3 majority. Look for an even 4-4 split now.
1. George Perles
2. Dave Porteous*
3. Dee Cook*
4. Faylene Owen

WSU Governors: Currently it's 6-2 Dems over GOP. One of the two Repubs is calling it quits, and Debbie Dingell has a lot of name recognoition for a candidate on this part of the ballot. Can you say 7-1?
1. Debbie Dingell
2. Eugene Driker*
3. Andrew McLemore
4. John Akouri

Supreme Court: When's the last time an incumbent justice lost for re-election?
Michael Cavanagh*
Maura Corrigan*
Jane Beckering
Marc Shulman

Kent County Drain Commissioner:
Byl 58%
McKay 42%

17th Circuit Court: Many judges, plus the Grand Rapids Press, are endorsing Trusock, but the all-powerful Right to Life is endorsing Brinkman. I smell a recount.
Brinkman 50.2%
Trusock 49.8%

Ballot proposals (in tems of what percentage of voters vote yes):
Proposal 1 (Conservation Trust Fund): 61% vote yes
Proposal 2 (Affirmative action ban): 46%
Proposal 3 (Allowing mourning dove hunting): 41%
Proposal 4 (Emnent domain): 64%
Proposal 5 (Education funding): 41%
So Props 1 and 4 pass, while 2, 3, and 5 are going down.