Bits of Tid: October 3, 2008

Happy New Month! Edition

• A belated Happy October to you! And in Washington and Lansing, it's Happy New (Fiscal) Year!
• I turn 21 this month!
• Yours truly is the new Deputy National Communications Director for the College Democrats of America!
• Holy $#!^!
• CMU faculty just might be about to strike soon.
• Hi, I'm Mounty Bat Palin. Nice to meet you.
• Since we have just three months left in the year, now's the time to think about what words you want to see banished by LSSU (if you haven't thought about them before)! Here's my latest pick:
  

  Bailout - Is there any word more deserving of banishment than this one?

• Coming soon on GLGTGS: I'll be working on a compilation of late-night jokes as well as a photo gallery of sorts. Look for them soon!
  

McCain: Economy fundamentally strong; right, and the Tigers will win the World Series

As of today, Lehman Brothers has filed for bankruptcy and Merrill Lynch has been sold. But try telling that to John McCain.

Democrats are pouncing on John McCain's comments at a Florida campaign rally Monday morning that the economy is “strong,” even as a major Wall Street bank filed for bankruptcy protection and another was sold to Bank of America.

Or does he really think that? Honestly, it's kind of hard to tell what he thinks.

"Today of all days, John McCain's stubborn insistence that the 'fundamentals of the economy are strong' shows that he is disturbingly out of touch with what's going in the lives of ordinary Americans," Obama spokesman Bill Burton said. "Even as his own ads try to convince him that the economy is in crisis, apparently his 26 years in Washington have left him incapable of understanding that the policies he supports have created an historic economic crisis."

Meanwhile, campaigning in Michigan for the first time since earning the nomination for Vice President, Joe Biden earns my nomination for Quote of the Day honors:

"Ladies and gentlemen, ladies and gentlemen, I could walk from here to Lansing, and I wouldn't run into a single person who thought our economy was doing well — unless I ran into John McCain," he also said.

McCain can't tell how many houses he owns

Daily Kos has more:

Is McCain's memory really that poor, and if so, what does it say about his ability to be president? Or is the number of houses he has such an unimportant question to him that it's not worth remembering? That he has a house everywhere he goes, so why bother singling them out to remember?

My question is, what does it say about the politics in this country when the current president's party is about to nominate someone who doesn't even know how many houses he owns?

Bits of Tid: August 7, 2008

• I was re-elected Precinct Delegate on Tuesday - by one vote! More on that this weekend, hopefully.
• Neither Indiana (11 electoral votes) nor North Dakota (3) have been won by the Democratic presidential ticket since Johnson/Humphrey in 1964. Yet both are toss-up states in this election. And Obama is doing very well in McCain's home state of Arizona (10)! Add Texas (34), Georgia (15), Montana (3), and Alaska (3), and you have 79 electoral votes' worth of states that McCain can't take for granted.
• Oh, my.
• The DNC calls out McCain for his ties to the oil industry. Well worth visiting!
• Eighty-nine days until the election!
  
• Bad boy, bad boy, what'cha gonna do?
• Dwight Eisenhower:

  "Only a fool would try to deprive working men and working women of their right to join the union of their choice."

  More gems from Ike here.

Electoral Math for August 2

We start with the 2004 map:

<p><strong>><a href='http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/interactives/campaign08/electoral-college/'>Electoral College Prediction Map</a></strong> - Predict the winner of the general election. Use the map to experiment with winning combinations of states. Save your prediction and send it to friends.</p>

OBAMA DEFENSE - states Kerry won which Obama cannot take for granted

Kerry states where Obama's lead is too close for comfort: 52 electoral votes
Michigan - 17
Minnesota - 10*
New Hampshire - 4
Pennsylvania - 21

*I include Minnesota because it is the home of the Republican Convention.

Toss-up Kerry states: None

OBAMA OFFENSE - states Bush won in which Obama has a reasonable chance of winning

Bush states where Obama is leading: 21 electoral votes
Colorado - 9
Iowa - 7
New Mexico - 5

Toss-up Bush states: 93 electoral votes
Florida - 27
Indiana - 11
Missouri - 11
Montana - 3
North Dakota - 3
Nevada - 5
Ohio - 20
Virginia - 13

Bush states where McCain's lead is too close for comfort: 85 electoral votes
Alaska - 3
Arizona - 10
Georgia - 15
North Carolina - 15
South Dakota - 3
Texas - 34
West Virginia - 5

When you take away all of the states that I have listed, you see that Obama has a significant lead:
<p><strong>><a href='http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/interactives/campaign08/electoral-college/'>Electoral College Prediction Map</a></strong> - Predict the winner of the general election. Use the map to experiment with winning combinations of states. Save your prediction and send it to friends.</p>

Now let's pretend McCain wins all of the states in which he's leading, while Obama wins all of the states in which he's leading. Guess what? Obama wins.

<p><strong>><a href='http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/interactives/campaign08/electoral-college/'>Electoral College Prediction Map</a></strong> - Predict the winner of the general election. Use the map to experiment with winning combinations of states. Save your prediction and send it to friends.</p>

And notice that Florida, Ohio, and Virginia are gray, which means Obama could very well win this election without winning a single one of these states!

Now it's time for my caveat: This is my look at the Presidential race as of August 2, 2008. As I posted earlier this week, Dukakis once held a much bigger lead in 1988 (granted, things were different back then). We still have 94 days, two running-mate selections, two conventions, four debates, and However, the

I would hate for Obama to lose an election he is currently favored to win. Which means, again, we need people like you and me to work hard to ensure he doesn't just win, but that he wins in a landslide.

Leaders vs. Complainers

Do you have 26 minutes of free time?


Once again, Obama has shown himself to be the leader we need during these times. A leader more than capable of working together with foreign leaders and the people of their countries to tackle the serious challenges of the present day.

Obama has used his overseas trip to establish a strong rapport with leaders such as President Nicolas Sarkozy of France, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, and Jordan's King Abdullah. He understands that America is at its strongest when our leaders work with others to advance the causes of human rights across the globe - to put a halt to the various threats to the safety of the human race.

Meanwhile, it is John McCain who has shown the same lack of integrity that has marked the Bush presidency. McCain's campaign has been stepping up his criticism of Obama, to the point where they have contradicted their own criticisms.

1. Seventeen days after taking a trip abroad to Columbia and Mexico, five weeks after giving a paid campaign speech in Canada, and two months after criticizing Obama for not going to Iraq, the McCain campaign criticizes Obama for taking a trip abroad that includes a stop in Iraq.
2. Eleven days after holding a press conference to claim that Obama is a serial flip-flopper, McCain argues that Obama is the most extremist member of the Senate.
3. Five days after releasing a documentary criticizing Obama for flip-flopping on Iraq, the McCain campaign argues that Obama is too inflexible on Iraq.
4. After spending April and May calling Obama an elitist, they spent June and July calling him "typical."

As we are acutely aware, attacks like the ones McCain have launched are about as commonplace in politics as snow is in a Michigan winter. And, quite frankly, I do see some need for Obama to continue to call out McCain, just as the DNC has been doing and just as I am doing here.

But if all someone has to offer is negative, contradictory rhetoric, then they cannot be trusted with the safety and security of the American public. Fear will not defeat terrorism, lies will not educate our kids, and neither McCain nor anyone else can distort their way to energy independence.

U can haz videos

Two West Michigan Democratic lawmakers and a state House candidate discuss McCain and the economy.


As my belated Fourth of July present to you, here's a video I got of a German band playing The Stars and Stripes Forever at a church festival.


A plane lands at the airport on St. Maarten. I'm surprised they allow them to come so close.


Bush tours the country to survey the damage caused by his presidency.


And finally, a stern warning from The Onion.

McCain and the GOP in a nutshell

Bits of Tid: May 28, 2008

• Look how poorly Obama's doing in mostly-white Iowa! Not.


• President Carter:

  "I'm a superdelegate ... I think a lot of the superdelegates will make a decision quite, announced quite rapidly, after the final primary on June 3," he told Sky News.

  "I have not yet announced publicly, but I think at that point it will be time for her to give it up," Carter said.

• Someone on Fox News said it would be great if someone would "knock off" Obama. That's how desperate some people are getting.


• The Libertarian Party - the racial diversity of which makes the Republican Party look like the NAACP - has nominated former Georgia congressman Bob Barr for President.


• The DNC has launched McCainpedia, dedicated to - yes - the presumptive Republican nominee.


• Speaking of McCain, I must say I'm not all that thrilled about the jokes that are made about his age. As free a country as this is, those who make jokes like that are also making fun of their future selves. McCain is 72, as most of us will be one day. So if you're gonna make jokes about how old he is, just keep in mind that that will be you someday.


• Sometimes I can't help myself. As I said on an open thread on Daily Kos, discussing gas prices:

  Well, Mom cooked a pot of chili last week and I had a bowl of leftovers a little earlier.
  
  Based on the law of supply and demand, that means we should see some relief at the pumps pretty soon.
  

For your YouTubing pleasure

Bob Schieffer on flag lapel pins:



The DNC's first ad against McCain:



Can Hillary still win the nomination?

Bits of Tid: March 14, 2008

Take Two Edition

• So do you have any plans for June 3?


• Barack Obama has condemned remarks made by his pastor:
  

  Let me say at the outset that I vehemently disagree and strongly condemn the statements that have been the subject of this controversy. I categorically denounce any statement that disparages our great country or serves to divide us from our allies. I also believe that words that degrade individuals have no place in our public dialogue, whether it's on the campaign stump or in the pulpit. In sum, I reject outright the statements by Rev. Wright that are at issue.

  So where is Hillary's condemnation of Geraldine Ferraro's remark that Obama is only where he is because he is black?


• Victory on FISA!




• Michigan's food-stamp reform will likely be adjusted somewhat, and Sen. Martha Scott (D) is happy about that.


• Caption the famous picture of Bush hugging McCain!

What a lovely couple!

Hillary ekes out New Hampshire upset; more analysis

With most of the votes in, CNN and other outlets say that Hillary Clinton and John McCain have each won their respective parties' primaries in New Hampshire. Time for me once again to don my pundit cap. (Apparently I look a lot more attractive with a pundit cap than without one.)

In terms of pledged delegates to the Democratic and Republican national conventions, Barack Obama still holds a thinner-than-Wheat-Thins lead of 25-24 over Clinton, with Edwards at 18. Romney has 24 delegates to 18 for Mike Huckabee, 10 for John McCain, 6 for Fred Thompson, 2 for Ron Paul, and 1 for Duncan Hunter. Again, a candidate must win a majority of the convention delegates to win the nomination. More on how delegates are selected later.

If nothing else, Hillary and McCain proved with this primary that they are top-notch contenders and are both very much in it. Big victory for Hillary? Yes. Setback for Obama? Yes. Fluke? We'll find out soon enough.

For Hillary, this win should remind everyone that it's not over yet, despite her disappointing third-place finish in Iowa. Must do well in: Michigan. I mean, there are five choices on the ballot in Tuesday's primary: Clinton; Gravel; Kucinich; Gravel; Dodd; and Uncommitted. Gravel and Kucinich were the bottom finishers in both Iowa and New Hampshire, while Dodd is no longer running. More on Michigan's primary in the next couple days.

For Obama, this could in many respects be considered a disappointment. He was, after all, leading by several points in most polls leading up to the primary. He had a certain amount of momentum that has now been lost. That said, only twice in the last ten elections has a Democrat won every single Democratic primary and caucus, and Obama only lost New Hampshire by two points. Also, as I mentioned, he holds a one-vote lead in the delegate count. If nothing else, this should motivate Obama supporters and remind them not to take things for granted. Oh, and polls aren't always that reliable. Must do well in: South Carolina. Nearly half of South Carolinians who took CNN's exit poll in the 2004 primary were black. Neither New Hampshire nor Iowa can be considered nearly that racially diverse.

Edwards has pulled two disappointing performances in a row. Both Clinton and Obama received twice as many votes as Edwards in New Hampshire. Must do well in: South Carolina, for three reasons. First, he was born in Seneca, SC. Second, he currently lives in North Carolina. Third, he won South Carolina over Kerry in 2004. Should he follow his disappointing showing in the Granite State with another one in the Palmetto State, look for many in the 'Anybody-but-Hillary' crowd to ratchet up the pressure on Edwards to drop out and let said anti-Hillary crowd more or less unite behind Obama.

Richardson has been a much bigger disappointment than Edwards. Richardson took 2% in Iowa and 5% in New Hampshire, failing to win a single delegate to the Convention. Must do well in: Nevada, with its heavy Latino population.

Just a few months ago, McCain was all but counted out. His campaign looked like it was on its deathbed. Yet with a third-place finish in Iowa and a victory in New Hampshire, it appears that (to borrow an expression) rumors of the death of his campaign were greatly exaggerated. Must do well in: Michigan, where it has been a battle between him and Romney from the get-go.

Romney won the barely publicized Wyoming caucus last Saturday and has finished second in the other two states. Despite their second-place finishes, he and Obama each actually lead their National Convention delegate counts. Still he must do well in: Michigan, which his father governed from 1963-1969.

What happened to Huckabee? McCain tripled Huckabee's total in the Granite State, and Romney came close to pulling off the same feat. South Carolina has a higher percentage of evangelical and born-again Christians, and regional favoritism could benefit him. Thus, he must do well in: South Carolina.

Rudy Giuliani edged Ron Paul after finishing behind him in Iowa. Fred Thompson took a dismal 1%. Why is Duncan Hunter still running?

Double dose of bad news for McCain

First there's this:

For the first time, favorite son Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) "no longer has a double digit lead as the top choice for President among Arizona Republicans," according to a new Rocky Mountain Poll.

Rudy Guiliani is now within nine points of Senator McCain and has "made major gains in just the past two months. As of this week, McCain leads Guiliani by only 34 to 25 percent, but more important is the dynamic surge in Guiliani’s appeal rising to 25 percent from only 13 percent in January while McCain sank from 40 percent to only 34 percent."

"The surge in support for Guiliani seems to be fueled by retired Republicans and Republicans most likely to vote in a primary election. Among retirees, Guiliani leads McCain by 36 to 21 percent and among likely voters who call themselves Republicans, Guiliani leads McCain by a 32 to 21 percent margin."

It's bad enough when (1) only 1/3 of the Republicans who know you best - those in your own home state which you've represented in the Senate for two decades - support your campaign and (2) you're losing ground to the 'pro-abortion' Rudy. But then comes this:

Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) "said his presidential campaign would not meet its fundraising goals this quarter, and his campaign advisers acknowledged that" former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney (R) "may wind up raising more," according to The Hotline.

"Some Republicans estimate that Romney, whose network of friends, business contacts and party donors is expansive, could accumulate more than $30 or even $35 million this quarter. McCain is not likely to raise in excess of $30M, according to Republicans outside his campaign who have been given the unofficial estimate." The deadline for campaigns to report their earnings to the FEC is March 31.

Wow Mr. McCain, your fellow Republicans are starting to like a 'baby-killer' and your fellow flip-flopper (who used to be a 'baby-killer' when it was convenient) more than they like you. I guess that's not surprising given that you were actually in Vietnam, and your party's attacks on 'Nam vets Kerry and Cleland show that that's a big no-no in their book.

McCain stumbles on the 'Straight Talk Express'

From the New York Times:

The unthinkable has happened. Senator John McCain met a question, while sitting with reporters on his bus as it rumbled through Iowa today, that he couldn’t – or perhaps wouldn’t – answer.

Did he support the distribution of taxpayer-subsidized condoms in Africa to fight the transmission of H.I.V.?

What followed was a long series of awkward pauses, glances up to the ceiling and the image of one of Mr. McCain’s aides, standing off to the back, urgently motioning his press secretary to come to Mr. McCain’s side.

The upshot was that Mr. McCain said he did not know this subject well, did not know his position on it, and relied on the advice of Senator Tom Coburn, a physician and Republican from Oklahoma.

Be sure to check out the transcript that follows in the article.

Presidential Bits of Tid: March 9, 2007

Sorry it's been a few days.

• Newt Gingrich admits he had an affair while he was pushing the impeachment of Bill Clinton.
  
• New York’s firefighters union stings “9/11 candidate” Rudy Giuliani.
  
• It’s early, but here are some poll numbers from the American Research Group. Both nationally and in Michigan, Hillary has a slight lead over Obama, with Edwards in third. Giuliani leads McCain among Republicans by a small margin, with Romney taking just 7% nationally and, perhaps more telling, only 10% in his father’s home state.
  
• All eyes will be on Chuck Hagel Monday. Prediction: He won’t run for president, but is instead going to announce his retirement from the Senate. His term ends in 2008.

McCain challenges Romney for flip-flop supremacy

Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney - son of former Michigan Governor George Romney and brother of MSU Trustee Scott Romney - is trying to brand himself as the right choice for conservative Republicans. Which is surprising, given his many flip-flops on issues such as abortion, gay marriage, and taxes.

Michigan Democratic Party Chair Mark Brewer slammed Romney in a press release as Romney prepared to declare his candidacy in Michigan:

"Today, the prodigal son returns. Throughout his entire career Mitt Romney has done nothing for Michigan, a state he abandoned decades ago. Romney is only announcing in Michigan because he is so unpopular in Massachusetts. Just like his flip-flops on abortion and gay rights, he is only coming back to Michigan because of a calculated political decision,” Brewer said. “Michigan’s voters are too smart for his cynical politics. They do not want a Bush clone on the escalation of Iraq. Michigan voters do not want a person who will support the same failed Bush policies of outsourcing and unfair trade that have severely hurt Michigan’s manufacturing jobs.”

Which isn't to say Romney isn't a genuine conservative; as Brewer said, he does support President Bush's plan to escalate the war by sending more troops to Iraq, as does John McCain.

McCain, however, appears to want to challenge Romney' flip-flop superiority:

McCain, until recently, was pushing for a reform law that would require conservative groups to reveal their financial donors. But, after fielding protests from evangelical Christians and antiabortion activists, McCain decided last month to strip out the provision.

McCain in 2000 assailed Bush's proposed tax cuts as a sop to the rich, and a year later, with Bush in office, he voted against those cuts, declaring that "the benefits go to the most fortunate among us, at the expense of middle-class Americans." But a year ago, he switched sides and voted to extend tax cuts for the wealthy.

McCain in 1999 said that, "even in the long term," he would not support the repeal of Roe v. Wade because "thousands of young American women would be performing illegal and dangerous operations." But last November he said that he now favored repeal because "I don't believe the Supreme Court should be legislating in the way that they did on Roe v. Wade."

...

McCain in 2006 suggested that creationism was not a fit topic for the schoolroom: "I respect those who think the world was created in seven days. Should it be taught as a science class? Probably not." But he suggested the opposite in 2005 ("all points of view should be presented"), and next Friday he is scheduled to be the keynote speaker at a confab sponsored by the Discovery Institute, a prominent creationism advocacy group.

For all the GOP's talk in 2004 about the need for "unwavering leadership," Mitt Romney and John McCain sure like to waver.

Newsweek poll: 2008 race is a toss-up; Americans trust Democrats and want change in Iraq

Newsweek's numbers don't lie.

When Americans were asked if they would rather see a Democrat or a Republican in the White House two years from now, Democrats lead by 21%. However, when you add names to the mix, it's very close: Hillary leads John 'Surge' McCain - I mean, John Sidney McCain - by one point, while Obama leads McCain by two points and Edwards by five. Giuliani beats Hillary by a point and Obama by two, while Edwards outpolls Rudy by three.

No surprise, Bush's approval rating is 31%. (Then how the heck do 41% believe he's a strong and ethical leader???) On another note, while only 36% approve of how the new Democratic-controlled Congress is doing, just 23% disapprove.

Regarding Iraq: By a nearly 2:1 ratio, voters trust Democrats to make better decisions on Iraq than Bush. They also believe, by a nearly 3:1 ratio, that the US is losing ground in Iraq, and by a more than 2:1 ratio they say the Iraq War has not made America safer from terrorism. And of course, America continues to say no to the surge.

Got that, Washington?

America says NO to Bush's proposed 'surge'

An AP poll says 70% of Americans say President Bush's proposed 'surge' in troops being sent to Iraq is a bad idea. That includes 56% of conservatives.

Wesley Clark thinks it's a bad idea:

The recent congressional elections - which turned over control of both houses to the Democrats - were largely a referendum on President Bush, and much of the vote reflected public dissatisfaction with the war in Iraq. Most Americans see the US effort as failing, and believe that some different course of action must be taken. Most favour withdrawing forces soon, if not immediately. The report of the Iraq Study Group is widely seen as a formal confirmation of US failure in Iraq.

...

What the surge would do, however, is put more American troops in harm's way, further undercut US forces' morale, and risk further alienation of elements of the Iraqi populace. American casualties would probably rise, at least temporarily, as more troops are on the streets; we saw this when the brigade from Alaska was extended and sent into Baghdad last summer. And even if the increased troop presence initially intimidates or frustrates the contending militias, it won't be long before they find ways to work around the obstacles to movement and neighbourhood searches, if they are still intent on pursuing the conflict. All of this is not much of an endorsement for a troop surge that will impose real pain on the already overstretched US forces.

...

The truth is that, however brutal the fighting in Iraq for our troops, the underlying problems are political. Vicious ethnic cleansing is under way right under the noses of our troops, as various factions fight for power and survival. In this environment security is unlikely to come from smothering the struggle with a blanket of forces - it cannot be smothered easily, for additional US efforts can stir additional resistance - but rather from more effective action to resolve the struggle at the political level. And the real danger of the troop surge is that it undercuts the urgency for the political effort. A new US ambassador might help, but, more fundamentally, the US and its allies need to proceed from a different approach within the region. The neocons' vision has failed.

So does John Edwards:

"George Bush's expected decision to adopt the McCain Doctrine and escalate the war in Iraq is a grave mistake.

"The new Congress must intercede to stop Bush from stubbornly sticking to the same failed course in Iraq and refuse to authorize funding for an escalation of troops. They should make it clear to the President that he will not get any money to put more of our troops in harm's way until he provides a plan to turn responsibility of Iraq over to the Iraqi people and to ultimately leave Iraq. George Bush wants to dig a deeper hole, but we need to climb out.

"The situation in Iraq demands a political solution — the Iraqi people must take responsibility for their country. Escalating the war in Iraq, which our own generals agree won't help, sends the wrong message to the Iraqi people, to the region, and the world. In order to get the Iraqis to take responsibility for their country, we must show them that we are serious about leaving, and the best way to do that is to actually start leaving and immediately withdraw 40–50,000 troops. Once the U.S. starts leaving, the Iraqi people and other regional powers will be forced to step up and engage in the search for a political solution that can bring an end to sectarian violence and allow reconstruction to take hold, creating — as should have been done long ago — Iraqi jobs for Iraqis."

Not to mention Carl Levin:

“An escalation of American troops is a flawed strategy for two reasons: it implies that there is a military solution to the violence when what’s needed is a political solution among the Iraqi leaders, and it suggests that the future of Iraq is in our hands not theirs.

“More promises by the Iraqis to take responsibility for their own future and more statements by the President on the need for doing so are no substitute for U.S. actions to force political compromises by the Iraqis. The President did not set benchmarks for the Iraqis that have hard deadlines and clear consequences for failure.

“The President's long-overdue words are that we are ending the open-ended commitment to Iraq, but the reality is that he is sending the opposite message to the Iraqis by putting more American military men and women in the middle of Iraqi sectarian violence.

Of course, John McCain thinks the surge is a great idea.

With so many Americans saying the surge is the wrong way to go, is it any wonder Rasmussen says Bush's approval rating is the lowest it's ever been?

A first look at Election 2008

For the first time since 1952, neither the incumbent President nor the incumbent VP will be a nominee for the White House. After Dick Cheney announced early in his Vice Presidency that he wouldn't run for President, many analysts have predicted that the 2008 White House race was as open as it has been in a while. In other words, it is hard to tell who could be the 44th President (as opposed to 2000, when Gore and Bush were the favorited to become their parties' nominees).

So who's running? Who's not? Who's on the fence? (Asterisk denotes those who have run for president in the past; two asterisks mean they have run for President twice)

Who's in?

The following candidates have announced their candidacies for President or have filed to form what is called an exploratory committee: (Asterisk denotes those who have run for president in the past)

Sen. Joe Biden (D-DE)*
Fmr. Sen. John Edwards (D-NC)*
Fmr. Sen. Mike Gravel (D-AK)
Rep. Dennis Kucinich (D-OH)*
Gov. Bill Richardson (D-NM)
Outgoing Gov. Tom Vilsack (D-IA)
Fmr. Gov. Jim Gilmore (R-VA)
Fmr. Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R-NY)
Sen. Sam Brownback (R-KS)
Rep. Duncan Hunter (R-CA)
Sen. John McCain (R-AZ)*
Outgoing Gov. Mitt Romney (R-MA)
Fmr. HHS Sec. Tommy Thompson (R-WI)

Who's Out?

The following people have said they will not run for President in 2008.

Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN)
Fmr. Sen. Tom Daschle (D-SD)
Fmr. Gov. Howard Dean (D-VT)*
Sen. Russ Feingold (D-WI)
Fmr. VP. Al Gore (D-TN)**
Fmr. Gov. Mark Warner (D-VA)
Gov. Haley Barbour (R-MS)
Outgoing Gov. Jeb Bush (R-FL)
Outgoing Sen. Bill Frist (R-TN)
Sec. of State Condoleezza Rice (R-CA)
Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R-MN)
Gov. Mark Sanford (R-SC)

Who's on the fence? (And I don't mean the miles-long fence along the Mexican Border)

The following people may or may not run in 2008.

Gen. Wesley Clark (Ret.), US Army (D-AR)* - Prediction: Will run.
Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-NY) - Prediction: Will not run. (You heard it here first.)
Sen. John Kerry (D-MA)* - Prediction: Will run.
Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) - Prediction: Will not run.
Fmr. Rep. Newt Gingrich (R-GA) - Prediction: Will run.
Sen. Chuck Hagel (R-NE) - Prediction: Will run.