How many 2016 DNC delegates will Michigan get?

(This is part 2 of a series on Michigan's role in the 2016 Democratic presidential nominating process and the 47th Democratic National Convention.)

How does a political party decide who will carry its torch into a presidential election? In the Democratic Party, the process for selecting presidential nominees is quite complex. It needs to be in order to ensure that the process is fair and inclusive to all Democrats.

While the nomination will be settled long before the convention - and maybe even sooner, if Hillary runs - there's still a lot of thought and planning that each state must undertake as part of this process. With fewer than 18 months to go until the Democratic National Convention convenes in July 2016 - and with just three more months before each state Party decides how its delegates are selected - now's a good time to consider how many delegates Michigan will have at the convention.

Number of Delegates

Michigan will have between 150 and 190 delegates. The exact number depends on three factors: the timing of our primary or caucus; whether we hold our primary or caucus on the same date as neighboring states; and the exact number of superdelegates, who are automatically delegates based on offices they hold.

As I said recently, holding a May caucus does come with its advantages - including the right to send more delegates - but in the event of a contested nomination battle, we may opt for a March primary or caucus in order to gain some influence on the nominating process.

Types of Delegates

Delegates are divided into four categories:

• Superdelegates - They are automatically delegates based on positions they hold in the Party or in elected office. They include:
• Distinguished Party Leaders (such as current and former Presidents, Vice Presidents, House and Senate Democratic Leaders, and DNC Chairs);
• Members of the Democratic National Committee;
• Democratic governors; and
• Democratic US Senators and Representatives.
• Party Leader and Elected Official (PLEO) Delegates - The term "elected officials" seems more or less clear-cut, but the DNC doesn't really define what constitutes a "party leader." Regardless, these seats are awarded to candidates based on how well they did in the statewide caucus or primary vote.
• At-Large Delegates, whose seats are are awarded to candidates based on how well they did in the statewide caucus or primary vote (though in a separate calculation from PLEO delegates).
• Congressional District Delegates, whose seats are awarded to candidates based on their performance within that congressional district.

How Many Pledged Delegates Does Each State Get?

To apportion delegates to the 50 states and the District of Columbia, the DNC uses a formula that equally weighs two factors:

1. 1. The number of electoral votes the state (or DC) has, divided by 538;  and


2. 2. The total number of votes cast in the state for Obama in 2012, Obama in 2008, and Kerry in 2004 compared to the number of votes cast for those candidates nationwide.

The resulting number is a state’s “allocation factor,” which is then multiplied by 3,200 to get a “base” delegate total. 25% of a state's base delegates are at-large, while the other 75% are allocated to congressional districts in a formula that varies from state to state but which generally measures Democratic strength in that district. In addition, 15% of the base delegate number is added on in the form of PLEO delegates.

Michigan’s allocation factor is .03618; multiply that by 3,200 and you get 116 “base” delegate votes. That gives us 29 at-large delegates and 87 district delegates to be divvied up among 14 congressional districts. We then add 17 PLEO delegates to give us 133 pledged delegates which will be allocated to presidential candidates according to the results of the primaries and caucuses.

When you add on the 17 superdelegates, that gives a total delegation of 150 delegates (which must be evenly divided between men and women; more on that in another post).

Bonus Delegates?

Ah, but Michigan might have more delegates than that.

In the past, states used to try to rush to be among the first to have primaries or caucuses. To alleviate this, starting in 2012 the DNC is offering states “bonus” delegates if they hold their primaries and caucuses later in the cycle.

For any state that holds its primary or caucus in April will get a 10% bonus in its "base" delegate total. A state which holds its primary or caucus in May or June gets a 20% bonus. Those bonus delegates and the base delegates are then allocated either at-large or district-level delegates. (PLEO delegates are not added.)

Holding a caucus in April will give us a base delegate total of 116 x 1.1 base delegates, which rounds to 128. A May or June caucus will give us 116 x 1.2 base delegates, or about 139. So the actual number of pledged delegate votes Michigan gets will be:

Date	District	At-Large	PLEO	Total Pledged	+17 Unpledged
March	87	29	17	133	150
April	96	32	17	145	162
May	104	35	17	156	173

There's another chance for bonus delegates as well. If a "cluster" of 3 contiguous states holds its primaries and/or caucuses on the same day - and if that day is March 24 or later - those states get an additional 15% bonus in base delegates. (That 15% is calculated separately from the other bonus delegates.) So holding a late March primary or caucus as part of a cluster will result in Michigan getting 133 base delegates. For an April contest, that goes up to 145; for May, 156.

How many delegates would we get if we took part in a regional cluster?

Date	District	At-Large	PLEO	Total Pledged	+17 Unpledged
March	100	33	17	150	167
April	109	36	17	162	179
May	117	39	17	173	190

A Word about Superdelegates

As you see, Michigan has 17 unpledged delegates, or "superdelegates."

• 5 members of Congress who are not DNC members;
• 10 members of the DNC who are not in Congress; and
• 2 who serve in both Congress and the DNC (Debbie Stabenow and Debbie Dingell). (While they hold two positions that would give them a superdelegate vote, they each only have one vote.)

The fact that superdelegates still have a vote comes despite a lot of questions about the role of superdelegates in the presidential nominating process during and after the 2008 primary campaign. 19% of the more than 4,400 delegates at the 2008 Convention were unpledged; this included more than 700 "Unpledged PLEO" delegates (the party leaders, members of congress, governors, and DNC members I mentioned above), plus 80 "add-on" delegates. There were talks about removing the "super delegate" status of DNC members, but those didn't come to fruition.

What ended up happening is that the 80 add-on delegate spots were removed, and the "base" number of delegate spots allocated to states increased from 3,000 to 3,700 in 2012. (That base number is going back down to 3,200 for the 2016 convention.) There are 733 superdelegates for the 2016 convention, or about 16% of the 4,502 total delegates. That 4,502 does not include bonus delegates for states that cluster or hold later primaries or caucuses; as base delegates are added to those states, the total number of delegates will go up, while the share of superdelegates to total delegates will go down.

Bits of Tid: June 6, 2008

• In case you haven't heard, the DNC will join the Obama campaign in not allowing lobbyist or PAC money.
• Powerful:
  
  
• My computer desktop:
  
  Get yours here.
  
• My aunt was laid off yesterday. In Colorado. And she's not alone. Some 'single-state recession' we're having in Michigan, huh?
• Operation Overlord - also known as the Invasion of Normandy - took place 64 years ago today.
• There will be two people on the ballot for New York's 13th District seat in Congress named Francis Powers. The Republican nominee's son is going to run as a Libertarian.
• How is this for a banished phrase?
  

  Now the Real Work Begins - As if all the work done up until this point wasn't real.

• President Bush is so dumb, he thinks the Stanley Cup is something Chris Osgood puts in his pants to protect himself.

Bits of Tid: May 28, 2008

• Look how poorly Obama's doing in mostly-white Iowa! Not.


• President Carter:

  "I'm a superdelegate ... I think a lot of the superdelegates will make a decision quite, announced quite rapidly, after the final primary on June 3," he told Sky News.

  "I have not yet announced publicly, but I think at that point it will be time for her to give it up," Carter said.

• Someone on Fox News said it would be great if someone would "knock off" Obama. That's how desperate some people are getting.


• The Libertarian Party - the racial diversity of which makes the Republican Party look like the NAACP - has nominated former Georgia congressman Bob Barr for President.


• The DNC has launched McCainpedia, dedicated to - yes - the presumptive Republican nominee.


• Speaking of McCain, I must say I'm not all that thrilled about the jokes that are made about his age. As free a country as this is, those who make jokes like that are also making fun of their future selves. McCain is 72, as most of us will be one day. So if you're gonna make jokes about how old he is, just keep in mind that that will be you someday.


• Sometimes I can't help myself. As I said on an open thread on Daily Kos, discussing gas prices:

  Well, Mom cooked a pot of chili last week and I had a bowl of leftovers a little earlier.
  
  Based on the law of supply and demand, that means we should see some relief at the pumps pretty soon.
  

For your YouTubing pleasure

Bob Schieffer on flag lapel pins:



The DNC's first ad against McCain:



Can Hillary still win the nomination?

DNC: The failed Republican legacy on immigration

Glad to see the Democratic National Committee speaking the truth when it comes to Republican hypiocrisy on immigration.

Despite having majorities in Congress for twelve years and a President in the White House for the last seven years, Republicans ignored the issues of border security and immigration reform until it became politically convenient. To distract from their failure to address the issues and to distract from their failed economic policies, Republicans turned immigration into a wedge issue for electoral gain that has relied on scapegoating people and dividing Americans.

From border walls that were never funded to trying to criminalize immigrants, their families, and even clergy, the Republican legacy on border security and immigration reform amounts to failure and scapegoating.

There's a lot of useful information on that page.

Next time you hear a Republican talk about immigration reform, ask them why their party sat on its hands and did nothing while they had the chance to fix our borders.

Non-presidential Bits of Tid: March 9, 2007

Could Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell be vulnerable to defeat in 2008? It’s possible. Sure would be nice to retaliate for Daschle’s defeat in 2004.

Senate Democrats mean business when it comes to going forward in Iraq.

Carl Levin is working to protect our Great Lakes.

The DNC is doing something for Women’s History Month.

Guess which story the media cares about more – Anna Nicole Smith’s death or Walter Reed? Hell, don’t guess… See for yourself.

LOL - Here's what Mayans think of Bush.

Our governor is off to Germany and Austria. BTW: Here's blogger wizardkitten's take on the guv's recent town hall on WOOD TV8 in Grand Rapids.

Here are the resolutions we passed at the Michigan Democratic Party Convention a couple weeks ago.

Now this is what I call GOP infighting.

Bits of Tid: February 2, 2007

Happy February!

• The US Senate has passed a minimum wage increase!
• The Democratic National Committee (DNC) has launched an online series on Black History Month. Maya Angelou is the first to be profiled.
• Senator Carl Levin is featured on the website of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.
• The DSCC's House counterpart, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, will likely invest money toward beating Reps. Tim Walberg of southern Michigan and Joe Knollenberg of Oakland County.
• Al Gore, Nobel Laureate? He's been nominated. Actually, I wouldn't be surprised to see Bill Clinton get it (possibly jointly with George H.W. Bush), but if that ever happens, it likely won't be until Hillary's career is over.
• Al Franken is running for US Senate in 2008.
• The watchdog blog Eye on Ehlers - which I founded just before the New Year - has earned a mention in a page dedicated to Congressman Ehlers in the newly expanded GOP Watch section of the Michigan Democratic Party's website. I feel special.