2/11/2008

Weekend races and delegate counts

It looks like Barack's gonna end up 4 for 4 in this weekend's contests (Maine results here).

So the momentum is on Obama's side... but the delegate race is still very close.

The current count, shown on the right, includes pledged delegates to the Democratic National Convention. When you factor the unpledged delegates, Barack Obama leads 1134-1131. Considering that Edwards has not released the 26 delegates he got before he dropped out - that is, they're still committed to vote for him - the candidates can claim a total of 2,291 delegates.

That gives Obama 49.5% of the delegate vote, Hillary 49.4%, and Edwards 1.1%. And in order to win the nomination, a candidate must have 50% +1.

Incidentally, Hillary has replaced her campaign manager.

Now, as for the Republicans: Runaway for McCain, right? Eh, maybe not. Because while McCain still leads the delegate count by a wide margin, Huckabee went 2 for 3 in Saturday's primaries. I have a feeling that with Romney out, conservative voters who think McCain's too liberal will unite behind Huckabee.

Still, the smart money is on McCain, and as long as many independent voters feel that he will be the presumptive nominee for the Republicans, they will opt to vote in the more competitive Democratic primary, benefiting Obama.

Unless Romney flip-flops and gets back in the race soon - which I'm not sure I'd be all that surprised to see.

Oh, and by the way: Yesterday was the day Michigan Democrats were originally scheduled to hold their caucus. Ironic, isn't it? The majority of the MDP leadership wanted to hold it on January 15 because they figured it would give us more influence. Alas, Michigan would've been the most populous state to have held a contest this weekend if they'd stuck with February 9, meaning we would've had a great deal of influence and attention - and the certainty of knowing our delegates would be seated in Denver.

2 comments:

Distriba said...

We launched some new social communities for the presidential candidates. We thought it would be fun to see how quickly they can grow and what people think. Check them out:

mccain.myfreedomforum.com
clinton.myfreedomforum.com
obama.myfreedomforum.com

They are brand new so be among the first to join and let's see what happens.

Anonymous said...

Have you noticed that the media appears to be campaigning for Obama? The stories rally behind his momentum and show nice pictures of him while they also focus on Hilary's "troubles" supplemented with pictures where she isn't smiling. I'm beginning to see the fairytale that Bill was trying to call out.