How Michigan could tip the election

Since Michigan was first given electoral votes in the 1836 election (before it even became a state!), only once has the Great Lakes State proven to be a deciding state in a presidential election. That is to say, only one election would have had a different outcome had Michigan's electoral votes been gone to the other candidate. That was in the hotly contested (and highly controversial) Hayes-Tilden election of 1876.

While many polls and Electoral College models put Obama as the current favorite to win this year's election, keep in mind that things can change very rapidly. Michael Dukakis led by double digits following the 1988 Democratic National Convention before losing by quite a bit that in November.

There is the very distinct possibility that our state will become the deciding state of the 2008 election. Here I outline some of the ways in which that could happen.

Here are the results of the 2004 election:

<p><strong>><a href='http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/interactives/campaign08/electoral-college/'>Electoral College Prediction Map</a></strong> - Predict the winner of the general election. Use the map to experiment with winning combinations of states. Save your prediction and send it to friends.</p>

Now when we change the map a little bit, we see just how important Michigan will be. In each of the following scenarios, neither candidate has the 270 electoral votes needed to win the Presidency. Michigan's 17 electoral votes would be enough to put either candidate over the top; whoever takes the Wolverine State, takes the White House.

Obama wins Florida:
<p><strong>><a href='http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/interactives/campaign08/electoral-college/'>Electoral College Prediction Map</a></strong> - Predict the winner of the general election. Use the map to experiment with winning combinations of states. Save your prediction and send it to friends.</p>

Obama wins Ohio and Iowa:
<p><strong>><a href='http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/interactives/campaign08/electoral-college/'>Electoral College Prediction Map</a></strong> - Predict the winner of the general election. Use the map to experiment with winning combinations of states. Save your prediction and send it to friends.</p>

Obama wins Ohio:
<p><strong>><a href='http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/interactives/campaign08/electoral-college/'>Electoral College Prediction Map</a></strong> - Predict the winner of the general election. Use the map to experiment with winning combinations of states. Save your prediction and send it to friends.</p>

Obama wins Iowa and Virginia:
<p><strong>><a href='http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/interactives/campaign08/electoral-college/'>Electoral College Prediction Map</a></strong> - Predict the winner of the general election. Use the map to experiment with winning combinations of states. Save your prediction and send it to friends.</p>

Obama wins Iowa, Colorado, and New Mexico:
<p><strong>><a href='http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/interactives/campaign08/electoral-college/'>Electoral College Prediction Map</a></strong> - Predict the winner of the general election. Use the map to experiment with winning combinations of states. Save your prediction and send it to friends.</p>

Obama wins Iowa, Missouri, and Virginia:
<p><strong>><a href='http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/interactives/campaign08/electoral-college/'>Electoral College Prediction Map</a></strong> - Predict the winner of the general election. Use the map to experiment with winning combinations of states. Save your prediction and send it to friends.</p>

Obama wins Iowa, Ohio, and Virginia; McCain wins Pennsylvania
<p><strong>><a href='http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/interactives/campaign08/electoral-college/'>Electoral College Prediction Map</a></strong> - Predict the winner of the general election. Use the map to experiment with winning combinations of states. Save your prediction and send it to friends.</p>

Then there are those cases where Michigan could make or break a tie in the Electoral College.

Obama wins Florida and Iowa:
<p><strong>><a href='http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/interactives/campaign08/electoral-college/'>Electoral College Prediction Map</a></strong> - Predict the winner of the general election. Use the map to experiment with winning combinations of states. Save your prediction and send it to friends.</p>

Obama wins Colorado, New Mexico, and Ohio:
<p><strong>><a href='http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/interactives/campaign08/electoral-college/'>Electoral College Prediction Map</a></strong> - Predict the winner of the general election. Use the map to experiment with winning combinations of states. Save your prediction and send it to friends.</p>

Obama wins Colorado, Missouri, Nevada, and Virginia:
<p><strong>><a href='http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/interactives/campaign08/electoral-college/'>Electoral College Prediction Map</a></strong> - Predict the winner of the general election. Use the map to experiment with winning combinations of states. Save your prediction and send it to friends.</p>

Obama wins Florida, McCain wins Wisconsin:
<p><strong>><a href='http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/interactives/campaign08/electoral-college/'>Electoral College Prediction Map</a></strong> - Predict the winner of the general election. Use the map to experiment with winning combinations of states. Save your prediction and send it to friends.</p>

There are many, many other possibilities which I haven't outlined here. The point is, Michigan will be very important in this election, and it just might be a deciding state in this contest. Therefore, what we do here in the next 18 weeks could very well determine the future of this country.